Conab (the national supplier) estimates that Brazil’s coffee crop should reach 56.5 million 60kg bags in 2025, increasing the estimated volume by 1.3 million bags compared to the last forecast in September.
The state-owned company highlighted on Thursday (4) that the crop is expected to grow even in a year with a negative biennium and reach the third highest volume in the historical series, after only 2020 and 2018, both years having a positive biennium.
Konab noted that these expectations stem from a 5.5% recovery in crop productivity nationally, while production area is expected to record a slight decline.
Among the various coffee varieties, Arabica production is expected to reach 35.8 million bags, according to Conab estimates, which is higher than the 35.1 million bags expected in September. For Canphora (Conelon/Robusta), 20.8 million bags are expected to be produced, compared to 20.0 million bags previously forecast.
Conab also stressed that Brazilian coffee export revenues reached US$12.9 billion in 2025 through October, a new annual record. This performance comes despite the decrease in the quantity shipped, due to limited internal inventory at the beginning of the year, and in light of previous tariffs imposed by the United States on Brazilian coffee.
“After eliminating the two tariffs (on green coffee), Brazil has returned to competing on equal terms with other countries that export coffee to the United States,” Conab informed.