Relief operations in Colombian enclaves are slow, inconvenient and, above all, insufficient to declare victory over famine. The Danish Bank on Friday published inflation data for November, which left the annual variance at 5.3%. This decline was slight, but remains under the scrutiny of all economic actors because this number immediately becomes the technical basis for determining the minimum wage adjustment in 2026. The market consensus – which was surveyed by Citi and included 26 entities – expected a moderate slowdown towards 5.44%. Friday’s data represents a decline of 21 basis points compared to the 5.51% gain in October that shook the market.
The November data, in various ways, links the hands of the Republic Bank and the salary agreement table, which was fixed on Monday. The annual figure represents a non-negotiable minimum for discussing salaries, because the law requires maintaining workers’ purchasing power. Adding inflation and total factor productivity as of September (0.91%), the minimum increase would be about 6.21%, which would push the salary to about 1.5 million pesos in 2026. However, unions are pushing for a double-digit increase, with the risk of stoking inflation.
Specifically, the increase in prices for goods and services is still far from the 3% annual target of Republic Bank, and stagnant prices in recent months have led the Board of Directors to remain cautious. In fact, the market expects that the December interest rate decision will keep it at 9.25%, although it acknowledges that the bank may tighten its stance in January if the impact of the new minimum wage injects upward inertia into rates. The warning is not new: when demand for services and indicators gain significant strength, the margin for lowering interest rates narrows.
Relief in November comes from food, which has given a respite to household spending. “Fresh fruits, such as mangoes, were the downward driver, as were tomatoes and carrots,” explained Piedad Urdinola, DANE’s director, at the press conference. So far this year, the Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages segment has gained 5.18%, while other categories continue to exert pressure: Education (7.36%), Health (6.73%), Restaurants & Hotels (6.59%) and Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco (6.00%). Below the national average are housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (4.68%), miscellaneous goods and services (4.60%) and entertainment and culture (0.80%).
Core inflation – which excludes food and public services – dampens de-escalation: categories crossed by indexed contracts and interest rate adjustments that take time to moderate. And this is the place to read Mariana Quinci, economist at BBVA Research: “We expect a monthly variance of 0.17%, with strengthening from the non-food basket – especially accommodation and restaurants – and goods and transport adding to the pressure.” Their map indicates an annual inflation rate of 5.4%, ending the year at around 5.2% (final data will be known in January).
The advisory on regulated services and entities remains in place. “The impact of the index peg remains high compared to what would be desirable for a faster normalization of inflation, due to the large increase in the minimum wage,” sums up Laura Clavijo, director of economic research at Bancolombia. The regulatory front states: “The prices of electricity, water supply, gas and vehicle fuel will exert upward pressure” towards 2026. This is the chart we have seen all year: the base price gives way in small steps, and regulated prices never fully return to normal.
Practice confirms this. Camilo Pérez, director of economic research at Banco de Bogotá, explains that the leases showed indicators of 100% inflation adjustment in 2024 (5.2%), which stabilizes the prices of services. Against this background, market bets for November were tight: Oxykonomics saw a variance of 5.46% YoY; ANIF put it at 5.47% and BBVA Research at 5.4%. Official data falls within the window and corrects the slope somewhat, but the fight against inflation is still alive and fought ten out of ten. Inflation hits all families roughly equally, regardless of their income level. According to DANE, the annual variation of the CPI was 5.27% for poor households, 5.28% for vulnerable households, 5.31% for the middle class, and 5.29% for high-income households.