Colombia’s electricity grid is facing new warnings related to the balance between energy production and demandin a context where, although no power outages due to lack of supply have been recorded for more than 30 yearsfuture balances show ever narrower scenarios.
This is evident from technical reports and economic analyzes published by W Radio Colombia.
Colombia is considered a regional benchmark for electrical reliability. While more than 11 countries There have been widespread outages in Latin America recently two yearsthe country has maintained supplies thanks to the Complementarity between hydropower and heat generationa system that was consolidated after the crisis of the years 90.
You can now continue following us Facebook and in ours WhatsApp channel
Following this blackout, the country strengthened its energy infrastructure by investing more than $100 million 140 billion pesos in generation and expansion projects of the system, in addition to social and environmental resources associated with the development of these initiatives. These decisions allowed us to maintain operational stability for decades.
However, the current balance sheets of the market operator XMshow that installed capacity is not growing at the same rate as demand. Although various sources have been included in the electrical matrix, projections indicate an increasing reduction in the safety margin.
According to XM, It is estimated that the energy shortage in 2027 would be -3.5%a scenario that could become critical if it coincides with a prolonged period of drought or the occurrence of a drought phenomenon. The childConditions affecting water production.
Alarms are increasing due to delays in commissioning new projectsa situation that repeated itself last year five years. According to official information in 2021 just entered 7% the planned energy; In 2022He 27%; In 2023He 17%; In 2024He 25%; and over the course of 2025exactly that 9.3% of what was projected.
This failure to adhere to schedules has been linked to several factors. Extensive environmental proceduressocial conflicts in the territories, lengthy processes with regulatory gaps in the previous consultation, security problems in some regions and contradictory political messages influenced the implementation of the initiatives.
The impact of these delays affects more than just technical planningbut also impacts energy prices and investors’ perception of regulatory stability, which influences decision-making for new developments in the industry.
In parallel, various studies have estimated the economic costs that any rationing would entail. This is shown by an analysis of Corficolombiana rationing every hour would represent a cost of 5.2 billion pesos and a reduction of 1.0 percentage point of GDP.
Another study conducted in 2024 from the Bank of Bogotá, calculates this one hour of rationing per day would have an economic impact between 175 and 204 billion pesos. According to this report, these would be the sectors most at risk ManufacturingThe Mining and the Trade.
These activities are concentrated approximately 24% of GDP national and produce nearby 30% of employmentTherefore, the continuity of electricity supply is considered a key factor in the country’s production and labor stability.
For his part, Fedesarrollo analyzed a scenario comparable to the rationing of the years 90 and estimated that a similar situation could lead to an economic decline 1.5 percentage pointswith the loss of 230,000 jobsthe entry into poverty 203 thousand people and the extreme poverty of 102 thousand.
Forecasts and studies agree that energy security depends on the timely initiation of new projectsboth in generation and transmission, and reducing the barriers that have limited its implementation in recent years, according to analyzes published by W Radio Colombia.
About The Author
