The economist, Ernesto Mattosspoke to Channel E and offered an in-depth analysis of money issuance, exports, imports, demand for foreign currencies and the phenomenon of so-called inflation in dollars.
Ernesto Mattos confirmed: “At one point there was obviously a devaluation makes imported products more expensive“But he clarified that the impact varies depending on the type of goods: “Not all luxury goods are the same.” consume milk or bread every day“.
There was an increase in the monetary base
For essential products, the increase is explained by the fact that “this is exactly what they need Products not made hereAfter its development, the devaluation was 300% and was accompanied by “an increase in the monetary base.” almost 290%“, which shows that “also export has grown a lot“.
Mattos explained how the export cycle and the creation of pesos work: “Every time the central bank receives dollars from an exporter, gives the exporter pesosThen you can edit the broadcast, but the show was not shortened“.
Purchase in strong currency
One of the most critical points was the historical level of foreign exchange purchases. “They are almost at $30,000 million70% natural persons and the remaining 30% legal entities that held dollars,” he explained.
The interviewee noted that this extraordinary pressure puts the government in a precarious situation: “That is why this morning we heard the announcement of the reduction in withholding tax, You need liquidityIn this sense, he recalled that this had already happened before: “In December, November, This discussion is being held with exporters ‘I need liquidity‘”.
Given the dollar shortage and the government’s weakness in building reserves, he did not rule out a sudden change: “Let’s not be surprised to return to stocks. “Everything will depend on the intensity of the government’s demand for dollars.”
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