If two years have passed since the government of Javier Milei, The agricultural sector has the highest confidence in five years. This was reflected in the latest Ag Barometer Austral produced by the US Agribusiness and Food Center Australian University, that recorded an index of 159 points, above the July 2019 peak. The study has been conducted continuously since 2018. The report found this to be the case an increase of 28% compared to the previous measurementfrom last September, who scored 124 points. There have been improvements in both current conditions and future expectations for the sector.
The Ag Barometer is an indicator that reflects how producers view their current situation and what they expect for the future. It reveals perceptions about finances, business climate, investment expectations and vision of the sector in general. In this case, the document explained that the indicator experienced a large fluctuation 124 points to the 159 mentioned abovecementing a shift in agricultural sentiment.
According to the survey, part of this improvement was due to producers’ perceptions of their current economic situation. “51% of producers say their financial situation is better than last year, compared to 39% in the previous measurement, with an index of 138, the highest in the Ag Barometer series since 2018.”he emphasized.
The focus on the future has also been strengthened. “Regarding the next 12 months, all indicators are also positive, both at the level of the individual producer and at the level of behavioral expectations of the entire agricultural sector.”he explained. To this they added productive expectations related to the wheat harvest, good weather conditions for the dense campaign and the favorable timing of livestock prices.
The study also referred to a political and economic reading in the industry. “Without being able to quantitatively establish the connection between political events and producer confidence, we can conclude that the result of the October 2025 general election, which confirmed the course of President Milei’s economic policy, had a major impact on the improvement of the Austral Ag Barometer Index in all its components.” Indian.
As for the direct assessment of the presidential administration, the survey found the following “65% of producers believe that after two years in power, President Milei has met expectations, 25% believe that management has fallen short of expectations and only 10% believe that their expectations have been exceeded.”
At the same time, it was noted that there is a certain political reluctance in the industry: “64% of producers believe that despite the results of the October 2025 parliamentary elections, the threat of populism will not be completely eliminated by 2027.”
The report also noted that this greater optimism may not necessarily translate immediately. According to the survey 38% of producers will not invest for now, even though they see it as a good timemainly due to interest rates and financial context. He explained that High interest rates represent “the biggest obstacle to investing in fixed assets.”.
Another element that raises positive expectations is the trade agreement with the United States. The report stated this “95% of producers believe that the free trade agreement with the United States will be beneficial for the agri-food complex”particularly due to the possibility of expanding beef exports and opening up new markets for other products.
At the macroeconomic level, the survey over-clarified the sector’s valuation Measures related to less government intervention, the arrangement of the exchange rate system, the reduction of inflation and the possibility of embarking on structural reforms. According to the document, this combination helped maintain a “Optimistic mood, which is reflected in an improvement in all components of the Ag Barometer Austral.”
About The Author
