After the inflation data for November consolidated above 2%, the Argentine economic scenario has resumed its tension dynamics, putting renewed focus on the most important reference variable: the value of the official dollar. Although there was a relative calming in prices in the period immediately following the October elections, the latest monthly figures dampened disinflation expectations and forced operators and investment funds to review their financial strategies. The central concern is the apparent gap that is widening between a formal exchange rate that adjusts monthly to a maximum of 1% and a consumer price index that is at least in that 2% range.
This growing divergence between exchange rate nominal and retail inflation is making the market uneasy. Financial dynamics quickly reflected this reading: interest rates were recalibrated and hedging instruments such as inflation-adjusted bonds (CER) became more attractive again. The question that preoccupies the city and that defines the strategy of the week is crucial: To what extent is this current exchange rate regime sustainable with the dollar anchored while the country’s real cost of living continues to rise at a faster rate? In this context of maximum attention, the opening rate of the official dollar exchange rate at Banco Nación has already been set for this Monday.
Confirmed price of the dollar in the Banco Nación for the opening on Monday December 15th
When the week begins on December 15th in the morning, At Banco Nación, each dollar sells for $1,465. for 5 pesos more than what opened the previous week. In the other banks the price is:
- Galicia Bank: $1,465
- Santander Bank: $1,465
- Piano Bench: $1,465
- ICBC Bank: $1,460
- Supermuch Bench: $1,460
- Macrobank: $1,470
- Provincial Bank: $1,465
- Columbia Bank: $1,468
- BBVA Bank: $1,465
- Mortgage lender: $1,460
- Banco Ciudad de Buenos Aires: $1,465
- Patagonia Bench: $1,465
Meanwhile, the blue dollar starts the week at $1,445while at Finanzdollar cash is sold with settlement $1,504and the MEP, too $1,474.
The dollar will open the week this Monday, December 15th, at $1,465 at Banco Nación
A decisive relaxation in dollar stocks is imminent: the important benefit that companies will have
Minister Luis Caputo has taken another step towards “normalizing” the market. Although the result of the Bonar 2029 tender caused some criticism due to the expectations raised in the previous hours, the city’s heavyweights are celebrating the first issue of a government bond in dollars in almost eight years: beyond the amount and the rate, this is a sign that they are “gradually” rolling out the maturities in foreign currency, as all “normal” countries do.
Not only is it seen as an impetus for a rapid return to the international debt market with the issuance of securities under foreign law and longer maturities and volumes, but it may also be part of the chain that ultimately leads to the removal of controls on the foreign exchange market and capital movements, the main victims of which continue to be companies rather than individuals.
In addition, although the rate of 9.26% at which the new Bonar 2029 entered the market is slightly above expectations, they still celebrate that it is below the return of its comparables. The same applies to the amount: in the previous hours there had been speculation with higher numbers, but the $1,000 million raised was within the range of Caputo’s expected target and is considered a good number for a test of the market.
Key path to finally disarming the dollar trap
Leonardo Chialva, partner at Delphos Investment, already confirms this iProfessional that, as in football, this first broadcast was just a warm-up exercise for the start of the game: the game, played with titles of foreign legislation, would take place in the first two months of next year. To do this, the government must first obtain budget approval in Congress and approval from lawmakers to proceed with placing foreign debt.
According to Chialva, the government must advance placements in New York to ensure the transfer of debt into dollars, and then reduce restrictions on the foreign exchange market and capital movements. The premise is not to reverse the order “so that it doesn’t end up like Macri.” The risk is that a possible upheaval like in 2018 triggers the departure of major players and destroys everything else with market freedom.
Outlier director Gabriel Caamaño previously stands out iProfessional What usually happens in Argentina is the opposite: first they release controls and then they go out to raise dollars on international markets. At least that’s what happened with Carlos Menem in the 90s and with Mauricio Macri in 2016. But now, with Javier Milei, “they are trying something different”: pushing ahead with debt restructuring before the lifting of market restrictions is complete.
Caamaño estimates that the release to the international debt market will occur with the issuance of global securities in the first half of next year. But it will depend on the decision of Caputo, which could continue to raise funds through placements like this or “REPO” operations until the controls are completely eliminated. In addition, he emphasizes, it will depend on how the external front develops, which usually influences decisions.
From January 1, 2026, a new part of the exchange controls will be lifted, which will continue to affect companies: Multinational corporations can once again transfer profits abroad without restrictions. This is flexibility that the government expected in April when it unveiled the exchange rate band system, lifted restrictions on individuals and announced the agreement with the IMF. Key point: There will be no BCRA regulations, but the validity of the ban will simply expire and the monetary authority will not introduce new restrictions.
At that time, the executive had distinguished two debt universes for the decline in profits: the shares accumulated by the end of 2024 and the profit flow generated in 2025. In the first case, the central bank offered the Bopreal, a dollar bond that met with little acceptance. On the other hand, 2025 profits can be automatically transferred abroad after the current ban expires, without the need for a new BCRA rule.
The possible impact on reserves is controversial in the market. Consultants who work with multinational companies believe that amount would not be significant relative to savers’ monthly dollar demand, which saw a slowdown in November for the first time since restrictions on people were lifted. In any case, the disarmament of stocks will not be complete: the restriction on the purchase of foreign currency by companies for hoarding purposes remains in force. The end of this measure will depend on whether the government manages to raise more dollars.
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