Brazilians are optimistic for 2026. According to an opinion survey by Datafolha, 69% of respondents believe that next year will bring an improvement in their personal situation compared to 2025.
The result represents a jump of nine percentage points from the last survey. At the end of last year, 60% of them expected their personal situation to improve in 2025 – the lowest level recorded during the third term of the Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) government.
The question Datafolha asked respondents was “In your opinion, will 2026 be a better year, the same or worse than 2025 for you?”
For 2026, 16% say their personal situation will be the same as in 2025, and 11% think it will be worse. A group of 3% of respondents did not know how to answer the question.
In projections for 2021, 68% were optimistic, compared to 19% who thought there would be no change. Those who anticipated a worsening were 10%, and 2% did not know how to react.
The survey also recorded an increase in respondents’ optimism about the country’s situation in general. For 60% of those surveyed by Datafolha, 2026 will be a better year for Brazilians compared to 2025 – last year this percentage was 47%. The question asked by Datafolha was “In your opinion, will 2026 be a better, equal or worse year than 2025 for Brazilians in general?”
The result is equal to the level of optimism observed at the turn of 2022 and 2023, shortly after the presidential elections that elected Lula for a third term.
Still according to the Datafolha survey, women are more optimistic for 2026 than men. A group of 74% of those surveyed believe that their personal situation will improve in 2026 – a figure which drops to 65% among men.
Optimism is also greater among those with only a primary education level – 74% believe their personal situation will improve in 2026. Among those with higher education, this percentage drops to 62%.
The lower the income, the higher the expectations for 2026: 61% of those earning more than ten minimum wages believe that next year will see an improvement in their personal situation. This figure rises to 72% among those surveyed with less than two minimum wages per month.
Furthermore, 78% of respondents who voted for Lula in the second round of the 2022 elections expect an improvement in their personal situation next year. Among those who voted for former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL), that level drops to 61%.
Among those who approve of the Lula government, 79% believe that their personal situation will improve in 2026 compared to 2025; 3% say the situation will get worse. Optimism drops to 59% among those who disapprove of the PT administration, and 19% think their personal situation will deteriorate in 2026.
Brazilians living in the Northeast are more optimistic for 2026: 75% of them think their personal situation will improve next year. The lowest level is recorded in the South (65%).
For economists, the optimism felt by the population reflects the good performance of some of the main indicators of the Brazilian economy in 2025. However, 2026 is expected to be a slightly less favorable year for the Brazilian economy.
“(2025) It was a year when food prices did well. With unemployment rates lower and food inflation so low, it is natural for people to feel good. And the situation, in fact, is good,” says Samuel Pessôa, researcher at FGV IBRE (Brazilian Institute of Economics of the Getúlio Vargas Foundation) and columnist for Leaf.
Brazil’s unemployment rate fell to 6.1% in the quarter to November, according to the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics). The rate renewed the minimum of the historic series of the Pnad Contínua (Continuous National Household Sample Survey), started in 2012. Until then, the lowest level had been recorded in the quarter until October 2024, when unemployment was 6.2%.
The IPCA-15 (Broad National Consumer Price Index-15), considered a snapshot of official inflation, accelerated to 0.25% in December, according to the institute. With this result, the index closes the year with a cumulative increase of 4.41%, within the framework of the objective pursued by the Central Bank.
For Pessôa, 2026 will not be a bad year for the economy, but it will be more difficult than 2025.
“The economy will slow down. It is possible that the unemployment rate will increase a little, but the average behavior of the Brazilian economy will remain that of a strong labor market and contained inflation. The wage gains made during the first years of President Lula’s third term, which were significant wage gains, will not be diluted.”
In the third quarter, Brazil’s GDP increased by 0.1% compared to the three months immediately preceding. The rate was slightly below the median of financial market projections, which was 0.2%, according to Bloomberg. The range of estimates was -0.5% to 0.3%.
GDP began 2025 with a boost from the record grain harvest, but began to show signs of slowing after the surge in the countryside and as interest rates remained high.
In September 2024, the BC (Central Bank) began a cycle of increasing the base interest rate, bringing the Selic rate to 15% per year. The municipality is trying to curb economic activity to reduce inflation.
Alessandra Ribeiro, director of the Macroeconomics and Sector Analysis area of Tendências Consultoria, affirms that “the scenario for 2026 is favorable, despite the loss of traction”.
She claims that the programs and benefits launched by the Lula government this year, such as the expansion of the range exempt from income tax, the Gás do Povo program and the creation of a new Minha Casa, Minha Vida range aimed at the middle class, will make it difficult to achieve the fiscal target for 2026.
Despite this, Ribeiro says these measures tend to stimulate economic activity.
“All of these programs, according to our assessment, add 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points to the growth rate, that is, we (Brazilian GDP) have a growth of 1.6% – this is our official estimate for next year. Without these programs we would have a growth of 1.2%.”
“What is the other side of the coin? You support more activity, but all this worsens our budgetary situation. That is why for 2026 we believe that the government will not reach the (primary budgetary) target, even if it comes close to it,” adds Ribeiro.
Datafolha surveyed 2,002 people aged 16 or older across Brazil, spread across 113 municipalities, in population flow points, from December 2 to 4. The margin of error is 2 percentage points, plus or minus, and the research confidence level is 95%.
WOMEN FEEL MORE ANGUISED BY FINANCIAL PROBLEMS THAN MEN
Among the women surveyed by Datafolha, 39% said they had felt anxiety about financial problems in 2025, always or often, compared to 28% of men. Another 26% of women said they had not felt – or rarely felt – distress due to economic hardship this year.
Additionally, 43% of women report feeling always or frequently tired or mentally exhausted in 2025 – this figure drops to 30% among men.
They are also those who are the most afraid of the situation in the country: 48% say they will always or frequently feel this way in 2025. Among men, this percentage drops to 40%.
In contrast, when asked about their personal achievements, the percentage of those who were always or often proud of their achievements in 2025 was similar: 69% for men and 67% for women.
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