Former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) has been announced as Lula’s (PT) rival in the 2026 elections, and his son Flavio would be 15 points behind the PT member if a potential runoff was held today.
Other names on the right, such as the conservatives Tarcisio de Freitas (Republicanos-SP) and Ratinho Junior (PSD-PR), trail by 5 and 6 points, respectively.
The Senator of the Liberal Party of Rio announced, on Friday, the candidacy of his father, who was sentenced to 27 years and three months in prison for a coup attempt after losing the 2022 elections to Lula and who will not be able to run again until he is 105 years old, on Friday (5).
The nomination has been met with dismay from the centre, the Malaysian Development Bank and the Social Democratic Party, the mix in Lula’s government that also has names to challenge him. The figures in Datafolha’s latest survey on next year’s succession add more fuel to this mill.
The institute conducted interviews with 2,002 voters from Tuesday (2) to Thursday (4), before Flavio’s announcement. The survey was conducted in 113 municipalities with people over 16 years old. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus two points.
Starting from the second round, and since the fragmentation and rejection of the main names in the field indicate that the bill will not be decided in the first round, what we see is a marginal expansion of Lula’s dominance compared to the previous poll, at the end of July.
In the scenario against Flavio, Lula got 51% compared to 36%. Previously, he won 48% to 37%. Bolsonaro’s nickname is heavy in context.
The percentage of the senator’s brother, Rep. Eduardo (PL-SP), rose from 37% to 35%, while in the Lula conflict it rose from 49% to 52%, within the margin of error.
Former First Lady Michelle (PL-DF), who clashed with her jailed stepchildren, loses between 50% and 39% in this scenario.
Right-wing governors are doing better in the race. Tarcísio loses in the simulation to Lula by 47% to 42%. In July, the result was 45% to 41%.
Ratinyo Junior retains the competitiveness he already saw when he lost 45% to 40%, and now scores 41% to the incumbent’s 47%.
Datafolha also tested the potential name of the former president against his successor, given that until his candidacy is rejected by the electoral tribunal, Bolsonaro can campaign, as Lula, who was then arrested and rendered ineligible, did in 2018 until he fired his deputy Fernando Haddad (PT). The Institute proceeded in the same way that year.
Bolsonaro’s advantage declined during that period that coincided with his conviction and imprisonment. He lost 47% to 43%, and now 49% to 40%. But the chances of him running in the elections, on the foreseeable horizon, are non-existent.
In the most divided first round, Lula maintained his advantage, the usual margin among those seeking his re-election. Datafolha tested five scenarios, one of them with Jair Bolsonaro. Of the four possible today, Flavio and his brother had the worst performance in the family showdown against Lola.
The president received 41% of preferences, compared to 18% for the senator, 12% for Ratinho Junior, 7% for Governor Ronaldo Caedo (Uniao Brasil-GO) and 6% for the head of the Minas Gerais executive, Romeo Zema (Novo).
And in the parody in which Flavio makes way for Eduardo, who is in the United States on a diminishing crusade against Brazilian institutions in what he calls his father’s persecution, the result is identical.
When their stepmother enters the field, there is an improvement in the family: Lula continues to obtain 41%, compared to 24% for Michel, 10% for Ratinho Junior, 6% for Caiado and 5% for Zima.
In the lineup that includes Tarcisio as a candidate, Lula again received 41%, while the governor received 23%. Ratinyo Junior has 11%, Kaido 6%, and Zima 3%. Obviously, these scenarios presuppose a complete split on the right against the clear name of the Planalto party, which makes it possible to assume the possibility of merging the withdrawals into more viable nominations.
It turns out that political logic does not predict this, but rather waits for the second round to sell expensive alliances. In this sense, what stands out is how toxic Bolsonaro’s title is in the final round options.
rejection
This is also evident in the measured rejection of candidates, which is the second most important element in the electoral project viability index.
The clan patriarch speaks for 45% of voters who say they would never vote for him, tied with Lula at 44%, taking into account the margin of error. But without running in any national elections at all, Senators Flavio, with 38%, Representatives Eduardo, with 37%, and Michel, with 35%, registered very high disapproval rates.
Far lower are right-wing governors, most of whom have fair to good ratings in their states but are little known at the federal level. The rejection rate for Zema and Ratinho Junior is 21%, Tarcisio is 20% and Caiado is 18%.
All of this puts Bolsonaro’s choice in perspective, as it is seen as a way to try to maintain his title as the most powerful on the right, which is questionable by the day.
There’s still a lot to play for, but the scenario at the moment favors Lula, although his high disapproval and disapproval rating of 38%, compared to a stagnant 32% approval in this round of Datafolha, are more than enough reasons to raise alerts on Planalto for the October 25, 2026 release.