The Peruvian economy would end 2025 with growth of more than 3%driven by the recovery in consumption, the increase in private investments and a favorable commodity price environment, according to Apoyo Consultoría.
For him 2026Estimates point to a Expansion almost 3%although in a context characterized by the electoral process and political fragmentation, factors that could trigger episodes of uncertainty and affect macroeconomic stability and the performance of some sectors.
Consulting Support provides that the Economic output in 2026 It will depend on the political context. The high number of candidates and the lack of a leadership with broad support could lead to a scenario of limited governance.
“With less than a year to go before the elections, there are more than 37 potential candidates, and No candidate exceeds 10% of their voting intention. “This creates a scenario of weak governance with a fragmented Congress, which could limit the implementation of important reforms,” warned Víctor Albuquerque, partner at Apoyo Consultoría. He added that “the election scenario creates a high level of uncertainty that could slow down investment and consumption decisions in 2026.”
In it macroeconomic areaThis is what forecasts indicate Inflation will be 1.5% in 2025stay within a range that is considered stable.
As far as the foreign exchange market is concerned, that is Exchange rate It would be between S/3.35 and S/3.40 per dollar. “The sun will be relatively strong amid international turmoil,” Albuquerque said, referring to the expected behavior of the local currency.
The Trade balance According to the consultancy’s forecasts, the country would record a surplus of nearly 2.3% of GDP, supported by the performance of the export sector.
At the same time, the private investment would grow by over 9% in 2025, mainly due to the reactivation of mining, energy and infrastructure projects. “But beyond these positive numbers, politics begins to play a crucial role,” said Albuquerque.
The automobile market would reach a New record in 2025with sales exceeding 180,000 units amid credit recovery and economic stability.
For him 2026The outlook remains positive, albeit due to the political environment. “The automotive market will again reach sales records of over 180,000 units in 2025 and the outlook for 2026, while optimistic, remains subject to electoral and political uncertainty,” Albuquerque explained during the academic day of the Automotive Association of Peru (AAP) automotive meeting.
The Credit reactivation and the reduction in defaults in the financial system have made it easier for households and businesses to resume higher-value purchasing decisions, such as purchasing vehicles, sustainably supporting the sector’s growth.
“Sales in 2026 They may maintain similar levels to this year, but there is a great opportunity if we manage to stabilize the political panorama,” said Albuquerque, referring to the outlook for the auto market next year.
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