The Central Bank (BCRA) announced a recalibration of its exchange rate and monetary policies Adjusts the update mechanism of the dollar’s fluctuating exchange rates and raises new targets for the accumulation of international reserves. The company noted that starting from January 2026, the price of the currency can move within a defined range, which is adjusted monthly based on inflation reported by the INDEC two months earlier. Previously, they were adjusted monthly by 1% upwards – at the upper limit of the band – and downwards – at the lower limit.
Infobae collected opinions from economists and market analysts on the scope of this system and its impact on the financial system and stock market context.
The changes communicated by the BCRA aim to consolidate monetary stability after a process of slowing inflation and maintaining fiscal policy objectives. According to the official statement, the strategy includes the introduction of new mobile exchange rate bands, the revival of the reserve purchase program and a gradual review of banks’ reserve requirements.
Below we prepare a guide to understand the main features, scope and fundamentals of these changes.
The BCRA announced a new exchange system This changes the way the price of the dollar is regulated. The scheme provides Floating bands for the dollarwith a floor and a ceiling updated monthly based on inflation from two months prior (January will be 2.5%, which is the CPI for November). It also formalized the beginning of a program for the accumulation of international reserves and the modernization of instruments for controlling the circulation of money.
The flotation bands reported by the BCRA will define a Dollar exchange rate range within which market participants will operate. The upper and lower bounds of the range are updated every month based on the inflation data published by INDEC two months before (T-2). The Company may intervene in the foreign exchange market only when the value of the currency exceeds these limits and will introduce reserve creation rules within the permitted range.
The new program sets a basic goal: Increasing the monetary base from 4.2% to 4.8% of GDP by the end of 2026. According to the official document, the goal is to acquire about $10,000 million in international reserves in the foreign exchange market, assuming sufficient dollars are available. If money demand increases more than expected, the strategy could see $17 billion in purchases.
The program announced by the BCRA includes a programmed and limited acquisition of foreign currencies. The central bank said it can buy up to 5% of the daily trading volume in the foreign exchange market each day, leaving scope for larger purchases in certain circumstances. The plan provides for the possibility of increasing the level of reserves without resorting to large-scale monetary issuance or changing market liquidity.
The decision to adapt the system arises from the need to “real appreciation scenario, without reserve accumulation capacity“, as he explained Gabriel CaamanoEconomist at Outlier, too Infobae. Caamaño explained: “It seems to me that they are trying to find a way around the band. They are looking for a way around to see if they can gain some additional headroom to support the band and to see if they can buy reserves.” The economist emphasized that the adjustments are aimed at preventing the band from acting as an anchor that slows down the accumulation of reserves, a goal that the BCRA did not achieve during the validity of the previous system.
Upon consultation with Infobae, Jorge MorgensternChief economist at Alberdi Partners, said: “The announcement is positive as it gives more flexibility to the exchange rate system and gives it strength through the accumulation of reserves.” Morgenstern described the system as one that “looks like something that could be sustained for the next year.” He clarified that, according to his analysis, this change “is unlikely to have a relevant impact on the exchange rate in the coming days.” For analysts, the new flexibility is key to avoiding reserve sales when external factors put pressure on the peso.
Morgenstern has already pointed this out Infobae that the change “is unlikely to have any relevant impact on the exchange rate in the coming days.” According to the analysis by Adcap ResearchThis scenario is “very positive for hard currency bonds as the central bank is moving in the right direction, although inflation and exchange rates could face some pressure in the short term.” The reaction of the bonds is already noticeable in a significant decline in price Country risk immediately after the announcements.
Expectations regarding dollar volatility will depend on how the market responds to this transition to a regime with greater exchange rate predictability.
Caamaño exposed Infobae: “The way the band got here, it was clearly in a real appreciation scenario, without the ability to accumulate reserves. They’re making it a little more flexible because first they’re trying to make sure the band doesn’t appreciate that much in real terms, then they’re indexing it based on past inflation, and they’re trying to announce certain rules for a reserve buyback program within the band.” The economist emphasized that the measure aims to “see if it saves something that has not worked so far when maintaining the range, namely the possibility of accumulating reserves without having to intervene within the range so that the exchange rate does not disappear.”
In addition to the reserve program and floating bands, the BCRA expected to gradually further normalize banks’ reserve requirements and use LECAPs and LECAP repo agreements as liquidity management tools. The statement indicates the possibility of changing these tools depending on the situation and of communicating regularly through specific quarterly reports.
Morgenstern warned Infobae that the new regime does not provide for the lifting of restrictions still in force on the foreign exchange market, including those imposed before the elections. The economist considered that the removal of these measures will depend on the results of the new system: “Perhaps as this system is shown to work, it is something that needs to be addressed, as these measures create a gap again.”
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