The figures collected by Empiria, advisor to former minister Hernán Lacunza, are conclusive. Agricultural exports contributed to this for the year as a whole $36,964 million and those of mining and oil, $16,106 million. During the same period, importers demanded $23,458 million and “human persons”, $37,262 million. Given these numbers, Argentina does not appear to have enough currency to overcome what is traditionally known as “external restrictions.”
“Welcome the energy surplus that adds up. But without demand for pesos, no supply of dollars will be sufficient. Therefore, it makes little sense to tie expectations long-term to the presumed supply of dollars (energy, mining, agriculture). Without voluntary demand for pesos, three wet pampas, two mountain ranges, or three Vaca Muerta will not be achieved.” The limitation is not external, but internal.”Lacunza wrote on his account on the social network X.
The strong demand for dollars “human persons” A category to which the Central Bank includes natural persons operating in the foreign exchange market and the financial system. It includes several components: hoarding foreign currencies, paying bills and spending abroad for tourism are the most important.
After strong dollarization this year, Minister Luis Caputo spoke last week of a recovery in demand for pesos, which he said will grow strongly in 2026 after hitting a low point this year.
Why is it not enough to meet market demand despite the Vaca Muerta boom and the very good harvest? For Nicolás Gadano, chief economist at Empiria, this is partly due to this Exchange rate flexibility and the price of the dollar. But he points out that “since the introduction of the band system (last April) – whether we like it or not, it is a much more flexible system than the previous one – the exchange rate has actually adjusted upwards.” Today we are almost 40% up at lows go through. And this effect is noticeable in the most recent travel and import data. “This kind of real change is not the same as the ones we had before.”
Additionally, Gadano mentions that there was a portfolio dollarization effect this year before the election. “I think it is possible that this demand will weaken in the coming months. The flight of the peso before the elections was due to the fear that the program would fail. Apart from the electoral preferences of each individual, the election result was very solid for the economic program. So it is to be expected that this extreme dollarization of people and some companies will occur.” “Not only is it not going any further, but it is reversing a little bit, and in that sense the demand for pesos is improving, slowly.”
“The demand for pesos is at an all-time low, which doesn’t necessarily mean it has to return to the historical average, but it should recover a little. And this would be the opportunity for the central bank to meet this demand by issuing pesos and buying dollars,” he adds.
For the consulting firm ACM, after the easing of foreign exchange restrictions, outflows accelerated due to the formation of foreign assets with purchases of banknotes and currencies $29,926 million, of which 40.1% came from the last two months.
“After the positive result of the ruling party in the parliamentary elections in October private demand for foreign exchange is likely to weaken in the short term, tend to turn to historical values,” they emphasize.
There are other reasons to hope that demand for pesos will recover from now on. Emilio Botto, head of strategy at Mills Capital Group, emphasizes: “December is a month of very high transaction demand for pesos due to the payment of bonuses and increasing consumption.” This seasonality acts as a stabilization mechanism for the foreign exchange market.“.
“To meet this need, economic actors typically liquidate positions in dollar assets or hedging instruments, resulting in returns.” an implicit currency offer and helps contain pressure on the exchange rate,” says Botto.
“As long as there is this strong demand for money and a debt system with little risk of expansionary issuance, The exchange rate should remain stable during the year-end transition“.
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