Liberal Europe watched with hope and enthusiasm as Donald Tusk took office as Prime Minister of Poland on December 13, 2023. The pro-European politician showed the whole world that a right-wing populist government that had brought the judiciary, the media, cultural institutions and state-owned companies under its control could still be defeated using democratic means.
As opposition leader, the head of the liberal-conservative Citizens’ Coalition (KO) mobilized many young voters. After the elections, he managed to form a colorful coalition of three political blocs and was sworn in as prime minister at its head. Although the parties had different traditions, they had a common goal: to overthrow Jaroslaw Kaczynski’s conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party.
Poor poll numbers, weak coalition partners
Two years later, Tusk and his government are in crisis. His electoral alliance KO is leading the polls with over 30 percent. However, this leadership has a bitter aftertaste because it is based on the loss of the consent of other coalition partners. The New Left (NL) remains at five percent, while the other two coalition partners, Polska2050 and the Polish Peasants’ Party (PSL), are well below this threshold.
According to the electoral calendar, Poles will not vote again for two years. However, if elections were to take place next Sunday, right-wing conservative and right-wing extremist parties would have a clear majority in parliament.
Earlier this week, 42.6 percent of Poles rated their current government negatively in a survey by UCE Research. Only one in three approved of his management and almost a quarter of those surveyed did not express an opinion. The results of other demoscopy institutes provide even worse values.
The difficult restoration of the rule of law
Restoring the rule of law, Tusk’s much-proclaimed goal since the election campaign, is proving to be far more difficult than expected. Right-wing conservative President Andrzej Duda did everything he could to use his veto to destroy the government’s initiatives. The Constitutional Court and the Supreme Court fiercely resisted any attempts to depoliticize the judiciary. The fulfillment of the promise to quickly bring the corrupt representatives of the previous government to justice is also progressing extremely slowly. For example, former Justice Minister Zbigniew Ziobro, wanted for corruption and abuse of power, found refuge in Hungary and remains beyond the reach of justice.
For a year and a half, Tusk begged his critics for time until after the presidential elections in the summer of 2025. His candidate, the liberal Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, was supposed to win the presidency and resolve the political stalemate. But that plan failed miserably when Trzaskowski lost this summer to Karol Nawrocki, a notorious admirer of Donald Trump.
The new head of state is even further to the right than his predecessor Duda and has made no secret of his plan to overthrow the Tusk government. Since the beginning of August, Nawrocki has already paralyzed 17 laws with his veto, almost as many as his predecessor in ten years.
Few election promises kept
Tusk, who has experience in foreign and domestic policy, was still able to achieve some success. Thanks to his international contacts, he managed to break Poland’s isolation in Europe and normalize relations with key European partners Germany and France. He has managed to ensure that the Corona aid blocked by Brussels finally reaches Poland: so far 93 billion zloty (around 22 billion euros). Despite high levels of debt, the economy is booming.
However, Tusk was only able to fulfill a small part of his campaign promises. These, such as the right to abortion up to the twelfth week of pregnancy or the doubling of tax-free income, are still pending. Tusk didn’t even manage to approve civil partnerships that would also apply to same-sex couples: resistance from conservative forces in his own coalition proved too strong.
With a rightward shift on immigration policy and a tougher stance on Ukrainian refugees, Tusk sought to win the approval of conservative voters but angered his liberal supporters. A tougher tone towards Germany, particularly the demand for reparations for the surviving victims of the Second World War, should refute the opposition’s accusation that it is acting in the interests of the Germans.
Poor prospects for parliamentarians in 2027
A few months ago there was a debate in the media about whether Tusk should resign early to make way for a new successor such as Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski. But Tusk doesn’t want to give up.
Tusk was recently able to score points with his compatriots because the European Commission exempted Poland from the obligation to accept refugees as part of the distribution mechanism as part of the EU asylum reform. The Prime Minister can also count among his successes the Commission’s rapid approval of billions in Polish state aid for the construction of the first nuclear power plant in Poland. “We made it!” wrote in X.
Two years after the victory, even the pro-government media has fallen into pessimism. “It should have been different,” Bartosz Wielinski commented in Gazeta Wyborcza on the political confrontation that prevails in the country and leads to stagnation, writes the deputy editor of the renowned publication.
However, Tusk remains combative. “We will win the next elections so that theft as a principle of power does not return,” Tusk said in Warsaw last week. A “dream result of 40 percent” is within reach as long as “we build the Poland that ordinary people dream of,” said the 68-year-old from Gdansk.
(lgc/mn)
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