“Donroe Doctrine”: how Trump sees Latin America, according to his national security strategy

The term appeared on the front page of the New York Post in January and was quickly adopted by American analysts and the international press.

Would we then be faced with a new Monroe Doctrine in the region?

What are Trump’s concerns and interests in Latin America? And how will it extend its influence on the continent?

For the United States to consolidate its global power, Trump understands that his country must first reassert its influence in the region.

“The United States must play an important role in the Western Hemisphere, which is a condition of our security and prosperity, which allows us to assert ourselves with confidence anywhere and at any time in the region,” according to the new strategy.

For the researcher in Latin American studies of think tank (research and debate center) Council on Foreign Relations, Will Freeman, Trump seeks to breathe “new life into an old idea.”

“It’s a sort of ideological justification for US or hard-line intervention in the region, explicitly focused on immigration,” Freeman told BBC News Mundo, the BBC’s Spanish-language service.

“But the document also mentions drug cartels and hostile foreign incursions, which is reminiscent of the Monroe Doctrine in its original version,” he points out.

Creating a strategy inspired by the old Monroe Doctrine is not a new idea.

In 1904, then-President Theodore Roosevelt (1858-1919) established his own “Roosevelt Corollary” to this 19th-century doctrine.

At that time, Roosevelt argued that the United States should intervene in countries in the region that were unable to meet their financial commitments or take care of their democracy, Freeman explains.

Regardless, what we know so far about the so-called “Trump corollary” is very vague. The analyst therefore recommends not considering it as a strategic plan, but as a declaration of principles.

“Trump does not follow a sufficiently coherent foreign policy to be qualified as a doctrine,” according to him. “Nor does he make statements that help us understand the connection between the actions he is taking and his more ambitious goals.”

For Trump, Latin American countries are the source of many of the problems facing the United States. But they can also be the key to your solution.

The document presents “illegal and destabilizing migration” as one of the main problems originating in Latin America. After all, half of the immigrants living in the United States come from the mainland, primarily from neighboring Mexico.

“It is the most important region in the world for its domestic policy objectives,” Freeman emphasizes.

On the other hand, he mentions the danger posed by drug cartels, considering that almost all of the cocaine consumed in the United States comes from three countries in the region: Colombia, Peru and Bolivia.

In particular, the new national security architecture is based on the fact that the United States considers the region as “part of its internal security border”, according to Professor Bernabé Malacalza, author of the book The Crosses of the XXI Century (“The Crusades of the 21st Century”, in free translation), which deals with relations between the United States and China.

“Latin America has become a priority for the United States,” says the professor at Torcuato Di Tella University in Argentina. For him, the continent “has acquired a position that it did not have before, which is explained by the prominent role achieved by the security of the hemisphere.”

The document also discusses the need to limit hostile foreign incursions. This is clearly a reference to China, even without mentioning the Asian country by name.

On the commercial front, Trump seeks to improve his agreements with his partners in the region, with his slogan America first (United States first).

The new strategy calls for the use of “tariffs and reciprocal trade agreements as powerful tools,” something the Trump administration has already put into practice with several countries on the continent, with varying results.

In the specific case of Mexico, the White House knows that American companies have also been affected by trade disputes.

“For this reason, Trump seeks to consolidate agreements aimed at relocation“, the strategy of transferring part of production to countries close to consumers. “He understands that the region is part of the reconfiguration of value chains,” according to Malacalza.

Trump not only wants American businesses to grow, but also for allied countries to strengthen their national economies in order to intensify trade relations.

According to the document, “an economically stronger and more sophisticated Western Hemisphere is becoming an increasingly attractive market for U.S. trade and investment.”

“Countries in the region represent a disproportionate impact on these internal issues, which are very important to Trump and which also interest his political base,” describes Freeman.

The massive aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford has been in the Caribbean since November. Their presence serves not only to put pressure on the Venezuelan government, but also to reflect new US security positions.

The new strategy indicates that the White House intends to put forward “a more appropriate (military) presence” and carry out “specific deployments” to control land borders and maritime routes.

The United States even authorizes “the use of lethal force to replace the failed strategy based solely on policing over the past decades,” according to the document.

“Force is the best deterrent,” emphasizes the White House, leaving open the possibility of retaliation in its foreign policy.

The Trump administration has said it wants to revive the idea of ​​”peace through strength”, a motto of former US President Ronald Reagan (1911-2004), based on the use of military power to ensure stability.

But for Malacalza, security policy towards Latin America “does not configure a regional or hemispheric architecture, but rather seeks to align countries with the United States and, ultimately, with Trump.”

On the other hand, the United States offers a series of rewards to its allies.

“We will reward and encourage governments, political parties and movements in the region that broadly align with our principles and strategy,” the document underlines.

U.S. policy should, the document says, focus on supporting regional leaders and allies “capable of promoting reasonable stability in the region,” who help curb illegal immigration and neutralize cartels.

This reward policy was seen in October, when Trump announced a $20 billion (around 110 billion reais) bailout for Argentina. Or the following month, when agreements were signed with Ecuador, El Salvador and Guatemala, in addition to Argentina itself, to reduce import duties.

Regardless, analysts consulted by the BBC say the “Donroe doctrine” considers the region to be primarily a place of threats rather than opportunities.

“They are far more concerned with preventing dangerous threats from Latin America from reaching the United States, in their view, than with taking advantage of the opportunities offered by the region,” Freeman summarizes.