Spring began with the promise of improvement in difficult times in Brazilian politics. The demonstrations against the amnesty of the putschists, for example, contributed to the overthrow of the Blindagem PEC. But the environment would remain polluted, we knew it then; got worse. Toxic fog will enter the 2026 election year. Poisons:
1) Parliament tries to escape the police and justice, wanting to impose de facto an STF outside the institutional refuge, resistant even to the idea of following a code of conduct, shame in the foreground;
2) Non-payment of amendments seems to be such an old topic that it is barely talked about. But that’s what pushes the clergy even lower (because they’re almost entirely down in Congress). It is easy to gather votes against the government when the parliamentary mass is salivating with anger and thirst for money;
3) We knew that the defeat of the right would tend to affect financial prices (dollars, interest), all the more so given the indifference of Lula III with regard to the establishment of public accounts. With the announcement of Flávio Bolsonaro’s bombshell and his candidacy for the moment rejected, we have had the measure of this prematurely high cost;
4) The risk of a more politically tumultuous 2026 has increased. In addition to the open conflicts between powers, we see that finance is much more opposed to Lula 4 than previously imagined. So what? The campaign to reduce Selic’s base interest rate is not expected to go smoothly.
The Central Bank had monetary policy problems to resolve, regardless of the economic tastes of its clients. Today, it may face monetary problems resulting from political unrest. MAY, it should be noted, is not destiny. But there is a burning smell in the air, as Elio Gaspari says. To summarize, a rising dollar and the election calendar could pose problems even with the Selic reducing to a still horrendous 12.25% at the end of next year. Will BC rush to cut interest rates before there is a market reaction to a Lula 4 without a credible fiscal program? Or would the economy slow so much that it would be possible to make huge Selic cuts from the start of the year? Hmm.
The most recent conflict between the Supreme Court and Congress is still the result of the parliamentary majority’s attempt to avoid prosecution, indictments and arrests. In addition to older fears, Parliament fears investigations into banking scandals, criminal oil companies and amendments. The right and the far right want the STF chief ministers, but they have the silent support of almost the entire Congress. The right and the extreme right, as we know, want to dominate the 2027 Senate in order to control the STF or even cut off heads.
Gilmar Mendes and Senate leaders reached an agreement to limit the arms race (protection of the STF against facilitated impeachment in the Senate). But that’s all. The fight continues. What if the federal police arrested more parliamentarians? What if the first parliamentarians were found guilty of stealing amendments early next year in the Flávio Dino affair?
It has been difficult to pay even the minimum parliamentary amendment this year. The federal government’s pindaíba will be more important next year. How will it happen? Will there be a bomb in Congress? Will there be an amendment for a friendly parliamentarian or for him to abandon the explosive or burlesque candidacy of Flávio Bolsonaro’s putschist party?
There will be no summer rain to purify the stale air until at least Carnival.
PRESENT LINK: Did you like this text? Subscribers can access seven free accesses from any link per day. Just click on the blue F below.
About The Author
