The European bloc faces decisive votes that could determine the signing of the Mercosur treaty later this year. The week will be marked by internal negotiations, political conflicts and concerns about the impact of the trade agreement on the agricultural sectors and the competitiveness of the European Union.
After a quarter of a century of negotiations, the agreement between the European Union and Mercosur reaches its most decisive week. The coming days could determine whether the treaty will finally be signed later this year or whether it will include new chapters.
In Brussels, the movement is intense and the coming days include three fundamental stages: the vote on safeguards in the European Parliament, ratification by the European Council and finally the Mercosur summit in Brazil.
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The first test takes place this Tuesday (16/12), when MEPs will vote on the safeguards package. This is a set of defense mechanisms created to protect sensitive sectors of the European economy if Mercosur products cause an imbalance in the internal market.
According to RFI findings from European Commission officials, EU leaders are increasingly concerned that without the deal, Argentina will step up negotiations and Brazil will further deepen its trade ties with other partners, thereby reducing the European presence in South America.
The internal assessment is that the bloc risks losing space precisely in the South American market, considered strategic for the European economy. This same reading appears in the competitiveness report prepared by Mario Draghi, former president of the European Central Bank and former Italian prime minister, who publicly called for ratification of the agreement in a recent speech in Brussels.
Rules
The safeguards which will be voted on this Tuesday act as a rapid defense system. If approved, they will allow the European Commission to immediately investigate any abnormal increase in imports from Mercosur. MEPs from the International Trade Committee have tightened the text and reduced the time limit for opening an investigation.
Today, more than five percent year-over-year growth in imports can trigger this process. If the investigation reveals serious harm or risk to European producers, the European Union may temporarily suspend tariff preferences for the product concerned. The proposal was designed as a way to provide security to governments who fear consequences for their farmers.
If these protections are approved, they free up the process for the next step: a possible vote on the agreement itself by the heads of state of the 27 countries of the bloc, Thursday (12/18), in Brussels.
The Council divided
The European Union remains deeply divided over this agreement. Germany, Spain, Portugal and Sweden defend this conclusion and say the treaty strengthens European competitiveness. France, Poland, Ireland and Hungary remain reluctant, citing risks for agriculture and the balance of the internal market.
Belgium announced that it had to abstain, which makes Italy’s role particularly decisive. At the European Council, the treaty will only move forward if it reaches a qualified majority, which represents more than 65% of the bloc’s population. Small changes in position can completely change the outcome.
The tension is also political. For several governments, supporting the deal on the eve of national electoral conflicts could come at a high cost for farmers and environmental movements, making the decision even more sensitive.
Spain, on the other hand, has intensified its mobilization in recent weeks to try to bring the agreement to final signature. This Monday, the Spanish Minister of Economy, Carlos Cuerpo, defended the partnership in a press statement in Brussels. “This is a strategic agreement for Europe. I am optimistic, as you already know. We hope that this agreement can be concluded before the end of the year,” he said.
Even if everything moves forward this week, the signing in Foz do Iguaçu does not put the agreement into force immediately. The full text still needs to be adopted by the European Parliament, where it is only expected to be voted on in 2026. And even if the protection mechanisms are approved now, there is no guarantee that the treaty will receive the necessary support in the final vote. Many MPs admit to voting in favor of the guarantees, but remain opposed to the deal.
If the deal is ultimately ratified, it would create one of the world’s largest free trade zones, involving around 780 million people.
Find other reports on RFI, partner of Metropolises.
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