Europe seeks influence before its meeting in Moscow

arthur Capuani, RFI correspondent in Brussels

The meeting comes after two rounds of negotiations between the United States and Ukraine in Florida, during which the Ukrainians sought to review a plan initially considered favorable to Russia. The document stipulated restrictions on the size of the Ukrainian army and the loss of occupied territories, measures that Kiev considered unacceptable.

In this pro-Moscow context, the European Union is working together so as not to be marginalized in the discussion. Yesterday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was in Paris, where he was received by French President Emmanuel Macron. They participated in a video conference with leaders of countries such as the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, Poland and representatives of the European Union summit. They also had a video chat with Ukrainian negotiator Rustam Omerov and Steve Witkov.

In Brussels, the bloc’s defense ministers met to try to reach consensus on how to continue financial support for Kiev, including the possibility of military-industrial cooperation and private financing through the European Investment Bank.

The Moscow meeting is decisive. Kiev finds itself weak amid a political crisis, losses on the front, and a harsh winter ahead, in addition to Brussels’ hesitation regarding financial support. Now Moscow will have to react to the changes discussed in the peace proposal, which should determine the course of the coming weeks. The White House said it was optimistic about the possibility of reaching an agreement to end the war, although past experiences show that the path remains ambiguous.

The internal situation in Ukraine adds complexity to the negotiations. The country is facing the biggest corruption scandal since the beginning of the war, with the dismissal of Zelensky’s chief of staff, who led the negotiating team, the dismissal of two ministers, and the investigation of a former assistant to the president. Meanwhile, Russia maintains military pressure through territorial advances and successive attacks on energy infrastructure, leaving thousands of Ukrainians without heat.

The situation is confusing in Pokrovsk

On Monday (the first of this month), Russia announced its seizure of the city of Pokrovsk, an important logistical center in eastern Ukraine, and the town of Vovchansk in the northeast of the country. Pokrovsk enjoys a strategic location, as it is located at the crossroads of several roads and railway lines leading to the last strongholds of Ukrainian forces on the Eastern Front.

But the Ukrainian army announced on Tuesday that it still controlled the northern part of the city, despite Putin’s declaration of victory.

Europe is evaluating the use of frozen Russian assets

One of the most sensitive topics is the use of frozen Russian assets in Europe. Of the 300 billion euros frozen, 185 billion euros are in Belgium, under the auspices of Euroclear. The European Union is discussing how best to use these resources without ceding full control to the United States.

Researcher Jana Kobzova from Think tank The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) highlights the importance of this point: “Europe could significantly influence the peace agreement if it moves quickly on this issue. Merz and others should broker an agreement and overcome Belgium’s concerns. They should link this action to careful scrutiny of the trade dimensions of the US-Russian proposal, and insist that the European communities will accept the use of Russian assets located in Europe to stabilize Ukraine and/or offset European defense spending.”

Brussels has not yet decided how these assets will be used. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said progress had been made and a concrete proposal should be presented this week.