Household perceptions of inflation deteriorated again in December. After the last one Inflation Expectations Surveymanufactured by Financial Research Center of the University of Torcuato Di Tella, The expected inflation for the next twelve months has been achieved 34% averagewhich implies a jump from 4.3 percentage points compared to November.
The survey was conducted between December 1st and 15th in major urban centers of the country reflects a scenario greater macroeconomic uncertaintywith expectations being revised upwards in both the short and medium term, even against the backdrop of a monthly slowdown in inflation.
Twelve-month expectations: general increase and greater dispersion
The CIF-UTDT report shows that in addition to the increase in the expected annual average, the The median increased from 23% to 25%.sign this The adjustment did not just focus on extreme responses but was extended to the “typical respondent.”
The distribution of answers also shows a greater spread: The interquartile range has widened, with the 75th percentile reaching 50%, indicating growing differences in perceptions of future price trends.
By region, the Greater Buenos Aires leads inflation expectations with a 36.3% annuallyfollowed by the Autonomous City of Buenos Aires (35%) and the Interior (32.6%).
In all cases, increases were recorded compared to November, with the increase being more noticeable in the GBA, where expectations rose by almost five percentage points in a month, reflecting greater sensitivity to price dynamics in the suburbs.
Lower income households: higher expected inflation and widening gap
The study also recognizes a Widening the gap by income level. Average expected inflation for the next 12 months rose in lower-income households 37.5%while it was among people with higher incomes 32.4%.
The difference between the two segments increased to 5.1 percentage pointsThis is a socially and distributionally relevant fact, as it is expected to place greater pressure on the purchasing power of the most vulnerable sectors.
In addition to the annual horizon, the CIF survey asks about expected inflation over the next 30 days: In December the monthly average rose to 4.59%with a median of 3%This confirms that short-term expectations are also trending upwards.
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