THE influence of political cycles, It’s proof, but are not fully extrapolated. In this complex balance, in order not to tip the scales, we are developing precise analyzes of the elections in Extremadura and their influence on Andalusia. Especially when elections and their circumstances … are increasingly circumstantialthe precise moment partly marks its trajectory because the undecided procrastinate their final decision and abstention is the main refuge of discontent.
The noble land of conquerors seems to mark the start of a new political cycle (which had already started before, with the unexpected “coitus interruptus” of the legislative elections), with many common factors that are and will be relevant in this area electoral carousel. And an uncertain space that will be shaped by the final performances of its protagonists.
In Extremadura there were practically no surprises and the statistical analyzes were more or less confirmed. He even got the better of Tezanos’ CIS. It is the still photo of the national moment that can be reproduced in Castile and León, Murcia, Asturias, Aragon… and in Andalusia. It depicts the total collapse of Pedro Sánchez’s PSOE, the still unfinished rise of VOX and the curious paradox of The PP in its inertia, victorious as well as uncertain because that adds it to minority negotiating governments. Win and accumulate town halls, councils and communities, and the new challenge is stability.
The collapse of sanchismo
The sanchist strategy of sacrifice all territorial power to maintain nuclear power It’s terrible for his barons, who are just pawns. It’s a chess game where The only goal is to save the king. Michelangelo Gallantcandidate prosecuted for allegedly “shagging” Sánchez’s brother in the Provincial Council, teaches the path of María Jesús Montero. They are both the president’s elected officials and every referendum shows that they represent a liability. Gallardo could be a very bad candidate, but lost up to 14 points compared to two years ago, there is therefore no analysis that resists his guilt alone. However, the figure that most closely resembles Montero and allows for better extrapolation is Pilar Alegria, also minister (already former) and candidate for the throne of Aragon.
Extremadura has many geographical, productive and historical similarities with Andalusia and it is easy to establish a comparison. Yet experts warn that Extremadura’s moment looks more like Andalusia’s in 2022, He had already lived here four years ago. These are socialist strongholds which, once their hegemony was overthrown, collapsed and the erosion has not yet ended. Polls have made the PSOE the third political force in Badajoz, Navalmoral de la Mata or Almendralejo, and this can be transferred to the Andalusian community, where in provinces like Almería or Huelva we observe a cataclysm greater than that of Sánchez. And if the electorate continues to punish the president, there is no better target to carry out this sentence than that of his first vice-president of the government, minister of the Economy and Finance.
The other key is the growth of VOX, and without even worrying about the candidate, unknown in Extremadura. In these times of corruption and ethical and political crisis, it is the party which better capitalize on the vote of discontent and angerbecause it is the only formation that does not reign. His departure from regional governments allowed him to regain his burgeoning loss of confidence. It is a vote of anger, of rage, not for but against (immigration, feminism, nationalism) and with the reference of Santiago Abascal. In Andalusia, whether it is Manuel Gavira or another “nameless”, the only thing essential to his aspirations is not to subtract. Anyway, with eleven parliamentarians from Extremadura, It is not yet a government alternative but rather a key to avoiding the absolute majority of the PP, which, according to socialists, might even be good for them.
The strategy of the Popular Party
Faced with these two unfailing and well-established realities, the current President of the Council is aware that He cannot adapt and mark his steps well, because the specific strategic errors of the Popular Party penalize it both at the national and regional level. Moreno has winning inertia both from his training and from his own group in the communities of the community. María Guardiola won, adding an extra seat, but lost 10,000 votes and was far from the absolute majority she dreamed of, making it a bittersweet victory.
In this moderation, bellicose with the populists of the left and the right, Also sailing is the Andalusian leader, who sells stability that could be altered with the loss of the absolute majority and the growth of Abascal’s men. Adding more than all the left parties will be the objective of the PP in June, but this is a minor element. This will require us to establish new communication channels with Vox and be more forceful on thorny issues like immigration to counter the simplistic discourse of the man who is today his main political adversary.
The results of the alt-left cannot be extrapolated Well, while the UEX (United for Extremadura) brings together all this microcosm, starting from Despeñaperros, the vote is scattered in Por Andalucia, Podemos and Adelante. Barring a miracle (or interested reading of this cycle), they will continue to appear separately, putting individual interests ahead of ideological interests.
New political cycle
THE orient yourselfconfirmed in Extremadura while awaiting its continuation in Aragon and Castile and León, it is that the conservative bloc wins (more than 60%). But especially for the abstention. THE Corruption and cases of sexual harassment have demobilized the left and that is why the right, with the same thing, counts more. Forgoing elections punishes him, so low turnout in the 2026 regional elections presents a distinct disadvantage. The hypothetical electoral advance of the national elections, if Pedro Sánchez were cornered by the justice system, the Civil Guard and his own barons, would mobilize this vote and change the scenario in a relevant way. In Moncloa they use their resistance manual and they don’t even consider a new absurdity.
Everything influences but nothing is decisive. During these six months, a new context will be established and party strategies will focus on adapting to this scenario. The PP’s relations with Vox in these regions (Extremadura, Aragon and Castilla y León) will mark a new framework.
Juanma Moreno has the advantage of his leadership that he wants to impose on those who incite fear (all) and generate a new illusion (none), plus the imposition of the agenda and this power to press the button when he judges it and it suits him best. His moderate character allows him to place himself at the center of the political sphere, even if he has to fight harder and better on the right flank, where we see his only voice leaking. However, his figure is more worn by seven years of government than that of Guardiola, a period during which he had to face crises such as that of breast cancer screening, already resolved by drastic and surgical decisions.
The effigy of Montero remains charred, and not only his hands after his fierce defense of Santos Cerdán, but he still has months to face the demands of the separatists who are causing direct harm to his country. With a disintegrated and demobilized left, Vox only has to wait, wait, to take advantage of the errors of its adversaries. It has only just begun. Extremadura is the first station on a route without a clear destination yet but with defined routes.
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