The recent past attests that, for the first-born of the former president, Bolsonarism forgives everything. In addition to the rachadinhas scandal, the purchase of the mansion for 6 million reais and the alleged relationships with militiamen, living and dead, Flávio has already committed more serious sins, at least in light of the group’s postulates. In 2019, he pledged to bury the Lava Toga CPI, to the satisfaction of ministers Dias Toffoli and Alexandre de Moraes, two of the most notorious members of the STF, the sworn enemy. The CPI petition – an initiative by Senator Alessandro Vieira (MDB) aimed at “cleansing” the judicial system – had as its starting point the investigation into the motivations that gave rise to the now “immortal” investigation into fake news, opened by Toffoli and reported by Moraes. Flávio not only refused to sign the petition, but he also called the senators to ask them to remove their name from the list. Lava Toga never saw the light of day. The fact that, a few months later, Toffoli responded to a request from Flávio’s defense in a decision that suspended investigations into the split, reinforced the rumors that the presidents of the STF and the Republic, Bolsonaro, had agreed to stifle Lava Toga in exchange for the injunction that favored Flávio. The rumors were so strong that Toffoli publicly denied the deal. The episode testifies to the seemingly inexhaustible capacity of bolsonarismo to ignore the contradictions of the representatives of the clan – in this case, the fundamental contribution of the senator in wasting the opportunity to disinfect the wounds of the superior courts with the sun.
— This type of episode does not affect Flávio — says an opposition strategist in contact with the family. — The radicals can swear on the networks, but from the outset, they will vote for Bolsonaro, and that’s it.
At least three presidents of the largest opposition parties believe that Flávio will see his candidacy through to the end and are already working on the hypothesis of his participation in the second round. This scenario did not prevent the president of the PSD, Gilberto Kassab, from telling his interlocutors that he would appoint governor Ratinho Junior at the end of the year, “as long as things continue as they are”, that is to say if the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas, currently a candidate for re-election, does not change his plans.
Within the Bolsonaro family, the situation is currently favorable to Flávio. Michelle, overlooked by Jair as a candidate, came to be considered “unviable” even by her party’s president, Valdemar Costa Neto, after her attempt to intervene in the PL Platform assembly in Ceará. Eduardo, who even threatened to run as a candidate, was losing his voice and his impact on the networks even before his mandate was revoked. Magnitsky’s suspension of Moraes buried any individual ambition of Zero Três – today a reiterated supporter of his older brother’s candidacy.
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