The financial market reduced inflation expectations for 2025 by 4.43% annually. The previous week, expectations were for an inflation rate of 4.45%. 4 weeks ago, market estimates were 4.55% per annum.
The target set for the broad national consumer price index (IPCA), which is considered the country’s official inflation, is 3%, with a tolerance range of 1.5% to 4.5%.
What is a focus report?
- The Focus Market Report summarizes statistics calculated taking into account financial market forecasts collected up to the Friday immediately preceding the release of the document.
- Focus is traditionally released every Monday.
- The report presents the graphical development and weekly behavior of expectations for price indicators, economic activity, exchange rate (dollar) and Selic rate, among other indicators.
- Expectations from the market, not from the central bank. The Monetary Authority collects and publishes data only.
In other words, even with the lower estimates, analysts still expect inflation to exceed the target ceiling.
IPCA has accumulated an increase of 4.68% in the past 12 months. At this pace and this level, the country is heading towards another year in which the target is disobeyed.
However, growth forecasts for the Brazilian economy this year have been maintained. According to economists consulted by the Central Bank (BC), Brazil’s GDP is expected to reach 2.16%, the same as last week.
The data is part of the Focus report released Monday (12/1). These forecasts are the result of analysis conducted by more than 100 financial market experts, who are consulted weekly in BC Survey.
gross domestic product
According to Fox, Brazil’s 2025 GDP should grow by 2.16%, maintaining value compared to last week’s forecast.
For 2026, economic growth expectations remain at 1.78%. For 2027, the estimate increased from 1.88% to 1.83%.
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In 2024, Brazilian GDP closed 3.4% higher, according to data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
interest rate
Forecast for the base interest rate, Selec, this year was maintained at 15% per annum. See financial market estimates for the coming years:
For 2026, analysts expect SELIC to reach 12.00% per year. For 2027, the interest rate forecast is 10.50% per annum. For 2028, estimates indicate a decrease from 9.75% to 9.50% per year. The Selec interest rate is 15% annually, after the Central Bank Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) decided to stabilize the rate after a cycle of successive increases.
dollar
Analysts consulted by BC maintained their dollar forecast at R$5.40. For 2026, the estimate remains at R$5.50. For 2027 and 2028, the market also maintained its forecast of R$5.50.