The new balance season placed again IRSA And Cresud in the central axis of local investors. In an environment where the Argentine real estate market usually moves cautiously, the two companies showed a performance that surprised even optimistic forecasts.
A recent report from Allaria confirms this Shopping centers retain their momentumthe corporate business of Offices are becoming more important againThe Hotels are improving and the mega project Ramblas del Plata is progressing faster than expected.
With prices as of December 5th –IRSA at $2,285 and Cresud at $1,738— Updated valuations show an expected return close to 90% And 92% or numbers that support the recommendation of Buy.
IRSA
According to Allaria, IRSA registered a Earnings for the period of $153,846 million in the first quarter of the 2026 financial year, just below the previous year’s end, although with significantly stronger operational key figures.
The driving force of the business remains shopping centers, where revenue increased to $72,823 million, with utilization of 97.8%an exceptional level for physical retail in Argentina. Alto Palermo, Abasto Shopping and Alto Rosario focused on the 34.1% of tenant sales, showing that key assets continue to lead the recovery in consumption.
Sales per square meter – one of the indicators most monitored by the city – recorded an increase of 2% quarter-on-quarter and 11% year-on-year, This confirms the resilience of mall traffic despite the macro-crisis.
The segment of Offices accompanied this improvement with income $6,085 millionEBITDA $5.05 billion and a very high utilization of the 96.8%, This is driven by premium buildings such as Zetta, Della Paolera 261 and Intercontinental Plaza, where vacancy is virtually zero.
In hotels, The unit went from negative EBITDA to positive EBITDA $2,725 millionwith rising average interest rates 32% and occupancy improvements at the Intercontinental and Sheraton Libertador.
Llao Llao still has lower occupancy compared to the same quarter last year, although it is improving compared to the previous period.
The new assessment anchor that the city has in mind
One of the most notable points in the report is progress Ramblas del Platathe megaproject that IRSA is developing in Costanera Sur. It means the creation of a new urban pole 693,000 sellable m²planned as a large-scale residential, corporate and commercial area with an estimated investment in $1.8 billion.
This is the fact that surprises the market the most 17% of the total project area has already been committed with local developers, although the focus in the current phase remains on infrastructure work. The first phase covers around 164,000 m² spread over 20 properties. From them, 17 are already committed and the other three are in advanced negotiations.
More than 500,000 additional sqm will be added in subsequent phases, with development planned from 2028 to 2035.
Allaria estimates the initial marketing values to be close 3,000 u$/m² and projects they could tackle at more mature stages 6,000 u$/m²which represents a relevant source of future appreciation. Based on these assumptions, the project’s valuation today is around $272 millionalthough there is a lot of scope for an upward revision as new agreements are consolidated.
Solid financial structure
IRSA closed the quarter with $463,640 million in cash and one Net debt of $227,357 million, shows an rReduction equivalent to $44 million compared to the previous quarter.
This position gives him significant flexibility to move forward both on Ramblas del Plata and in new acquisitions, as was previously the case with the Terrazas de Mayo shopping center.
Allaria’s report also highlights assessment property portfolio, estimated at $647,664 millionand participation mortgage bank, rated at $270,963 milliontwo key components of the Company’s consolidated net asset value.
There are also shopping centers, offices, hotels, real estate reserves and investments in other companies Enterprise value (EV) The total forecast for 2027 is $3.56 billion, with an estimated equity value in $3.47 billionwhich translates to an NAV per share of $4,720 for 2027 and a 2026 target of $4,350.
The expected return is 90%
The updated price of 5/12 slightly changes the brokerage firm’s original calculation.
With the display value $2,285, the upside potential compared to Allaria’s 2026 target is almost 90% –89.7% accurate– which also supports the recommendation of Buy.
Cresud
Cresud, agricultural holding company and controller of IRSA, also presented a solid start to the year. The total turnover has been reached $247,227 millionwith 61% come from the agricultural sector. The dynamics of the quarter showed significant growth Grain, where sales progressed 23% compared to the previous year, and a strong jump in Cattle, with an increase of 90% compared to the previous year.
In contrast, the sugarcane business fell 19%, while the Other category doubled its earnings.
He Adjusted EBIT The agriculture sector amounted to $15,449 million, accounting for 23% of the consolidated total. In addition, Cresud maintains one of the most diverse and extensive property portfolios in South America with presence in Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia and Paraguay.
The consolidated value of these fields is $513 million, according to the breakdown provided by Allaria.
According to Allaria, Cresud’s intrinsic value comes from the combination of the valuation of its stake in IRSA, the value of the fields and a 15 percent discount due to its holding structure.
With this methodology the price is The target for the paper in 2026 is $3,358.
The expected return is 92%
The market price update results in a predicted performance that is virtually identical to that of IRSA. With paper turned on $1,738, and an estimated target of $3,358, the upside potential is close to 92%, so the recommendation remains Buy.
Two companies, same attraction
Although IRSA and Cresud belong to different universes – one focused on urban real estate, the other on agricultural production -, Both offer significant upside potential with clear fundamentals that ensure attractiveness in the city.
IRSA benefits from a network of shopping centers with exceptionally high occupancy, a recovery in corporate business and the opening of Ramblas del Plata, which promises to redefine its valuation. Cresud combines its involvement in agriculture with an additional strategic advantage: its stake in IRSA, from which a significant part of its profits comes.
Despite all this, both IRSA and Cresud are in a solid operational phase.
Even with the price update from April 12th. Both stocks still have significant upside potential in the 87-88% range, a level that is difficult to ignore for investors seeking exposure to real assets in the Argentine market.
With shopping centers maintaining their momentum, offices increasing in occupancy, hotels back on track and a mega project enhancing the entire cultural heritage, Allaria’s vision is that both IRSA and Cresud continue to represent attractive bets for Argentina to come.
About The Author
