Some of my colleagues in the press have written articles about how to avoid fights during the holidays. I also think it is necessary. But you know, this demands a lot from Brazilian society. We are fishing for the figures from the last Quest: 55% of us believe that Lula should not be a candidate. That’s more than half. The president will be a candidate, even if he is rejected. And 60% believe that neither Jair nor Flávio Bolsonaro should receive any votes. These are two very high rejections. The same survey reveals that both Lula and Flávio are the favorites for the second round. More than half of us don’t want one – and we may be forced to choose one. How can you not fight in a scenario like this?
In reality, we are faced with a conflict of interest. On the one hand, society. On the other, political parties. Society would prefer others. It turns out that these two, Lula and Bolsonaro, have something that no other politician has: loyal voters in numbers. Lula has around a third of the voters. He just takes a step and carries them. Bolsonaro clearly has something beyond 20%. It’s a question of mathematics. Traditionally, 20% of Brazilians do not show up to vote. Adding it all up, Lula’s 30%, plus Bolsonaro’s 20% and those 20% leaving, that leaves about 30% of us who have already set foot in 2026 with a bad character. Because we risk finding ourselves in the second round having to make this choice.
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For the parties, the bill leaves little room for maneuver. According to the law, the priority is the election of deputies. The larger the group elected to the House, the more money the party earns from the party fund each year, in addition to the money it will receive from the election fund in the next election. Lots of MPs, lots of money. Little deputy, life is going to be hard. However, Brazilians usually don’t think about which MP to vote for until the last minute. Then the name usually corresponds to the president’s choice. In other words, the party that will lead the presidential candidates in the second round, even if it loses the Planalto race, has a large bench.
The electoral rule forces the hand of the parties. The PT needs Lula to lead the left. Without Lula, he would not have the weight of votes in the North-East. Based in the South-East, the party is losing space to the PSOL. The right-wing parties understand that Flávio is a worse candidate than Tarcísio de Freitas and, possibly, Ratinho Júnior in the second round. But no one dares to contradict Bolsonaro: we don’t know what would happen if he condemned a unifying candidate.
We don’t usually think of elections as the result of the rules of the game. But they are. Every time we create rules, we force players to understand the best outcome for their interests.
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What’s left for the family table at the end of the year? Are we going to fight for the third consecutive electoral cycle with the reds on one side and the Seleção jersey on the other? Well, there is hope. The first is the possibility of a popular insurrection coming from the right flank. Conservative voters refuse to vote for Flávio when they know the alternatives. The simple fact that one of the corners changes its face freshens the atmosphere, stops the fighting and brings us collectively to a different type of conversation. Because, in this case, there will be a defeat for Bolsonaro in the first round. And the second round of elections should focus not on teams, but on government projects.
Unfortunately, such a collective decision does not depend on anyone individually. This is one of those moments in history where money is falling in a society, it is getting tired and a consensus is forming. People then turn their backs on the past and look for another possible future.
However, we do not hesitate to initiate discussions at the end of the year. So I propose a game. There are four questions for everyone around the table. What is the responsibility of the State to guarantee health, education, retirement? This shows how much we want a welfare state. So: what is the role of government in defining which sectors of the economy should be protected or stimulated? It is he who measures the space which belongs to the State and that which belongs to the market. Another question: When it comes to family, religion, sexuality and drugs, how much control should the government have? A question to understand everyone’s position on customs. And finally, the last: when a very popular leader comes into conflict with the courts or Parliament, should his decisions prevail? Ask everyone to imagine their favorite president in Planalto.
These questions allow people on the left and right to find many agreements without talking about left or right. Empathy comes from there.
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