Opportunistic investors are finding fertile ground in the crisis in the renewable energy sector. He collapse in electricity pricesTHE loss of asset value and the financial stress Many developers have transformed a market that for years was one of sellers, into one dominated by buyers with cash.
This is an adjustment that has been particularly hard for photovoltaic technologywhere many projects have seen their valuations plummet in a short period of time, forcing them to rethink their business plans and investment schedules.
This environment opens the door to funds distressed and opportunistic debtinvestors with a high risk tolerance who look for opportunities where others see difficulties. According to industry experts, its presence will begin to be felt more clearly during the year 2026.
“The market has gone from a clear seller’s market to a buyer’s market,” summarizes Lucía González, energy associate at Ontier. “Prices have fallen considerably. In many cases, “The seller no longer aspires to obtain the profitability initially expected, but simply not to lose more money.”he adds.
The situation has brought many developers to an extreme situation, just as their projects require more investment to move to the construction phase.
Many of them started between 2017 and 2018 and now coincide at critical stages, in a much more demanding financial environment and with a banks are less and less willing to refinance.
“This creates windows for discount acquisitions, financing restructurings, seeking co-investors and accelerated sales of non-strategic portfolios,” says Patricia Figueroa, senior associate of trading and M&A at A&O Shearman.
At a more structural level, from Montero Aramburu & Gómez-Villares Atencia, partners Miguel Cuesta and Ana Beatriz Gamero agree that this scenario will lead to three major movements: the entry of funds into projects under construction and operation, the consolidation of the sector and the operational and debt restructuring to guarantee the viability of the companies.
According to him, a significant number of projects “will require reduce your leverage or make additional investments in an environment of capital scarcity, an area that specialist funds will undoubtedly take advantage of as a unique opportunity.
A representative case of the tension experienced by the sector is that of the Guzmán Energía solar thermal plant in Palma del Río (Córdoba), owned by Plenium (70%) and Mitsui (30%).
Faced with its financial difficulties, the company obtained judicial approval in 2024 of a debt restructuring plan with BBVA and several Japanese banks, thus avoiding insolvency.
Prices show the cycle change. According to José de Santiago, Corporate and M&A partner at Bird & Bird, “while before they paid between 100,000 and 120,000 euros per MW, today these same projects are valued, in certain cases, at barely 20,000 to 30,000 euros per MW“.
“Maintaining a project requires continuing to incur expenses, such as collateral and personnel, even as one tries to minimize the cost. Therefore, the incentive for some developers is not only to sell the projects in development, but also to remove them from the scale“, he maintains.
Beyond the cycle
Along with the funds distressedThere is another type of player that has been gaining importance in the Spanish renewable energy market for some time now: the long-term strategic investor.
“Spain is attracting interest from foreign investors, particularly China“Unlike other more opportunistic investors, Chinese investors plan 20 or 30 years out, ready to maintain their investment, even if current prices are not attractive.”
The case of China Three Gorgeswhich purchased the Mula power plant (Murcia) in 2024 and wishes to double its renewable portfolio in Spain. Its objective is not to speculate on the cycle, but to consolidate a stable energy and technological production center by 2030.
He capital of the Middle East It has also strengthened itself in the Spanish market. He giant Emirati Masdar has expanded its presence in solar and wind projects with several acquisitions, both operational and development assets, as part of its regional energy diversification strategy.
Meanwhile, some more conservative Spanish developers have also decided to wait. “There are clients who do not need to sell and who keep their projects to see if the situation improves, believing, for example, that storage will allow them to increase profitability and, with it, the value of the project,” explains Lucía González, from Ontier.
The consensus among companies is that the best-positioned players are those with financial strength and flexibility.
“Players with strong balance sheet, available liquidity and ability to structure PPAs (long-term energy contracts) or integrate new technologies are in a better position,” says Patricia Figueroa of A&O Shearman.
“Infrastructure funds with longer horizons and industrial buyers who integrate storage or hybridization have an advantage,” he adds.
Restructuring: a way to survive
The pressure on companies has also triggered restructuring operations.
“The restructuring team is experiencing a proliferation of operations through which companies seek to adapt the structure of their financial and commercial liabilities, or even the the contracts that are most harmful to them to the current market situation,” reveal the partners of Montero Aramburu & Gómez-Villares Atencia.
And they continue: “This is very relevant. The current regulations regarding restructuring plans are flexible and allow us to propose, in addition to financial measures, others of an operational and reorganization natureadapted to the specific circumstances of the company. It should be undertaken as soon as possible, once the complicating situation has been detected, whether current or probable.
This strategy is essential in an environment that already appears to be the most selective in the last decade: a market where survival will depend on both access to capital and the ability to anticipate and adapt to cycle change.
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