Economic Gaston Alonso He explained in Channel E The combination of distorted rates, lower collections and weak consumption predicts a difficult outlook for economic activity.
Alonso The bank analyzed three main axes of the situation: the unexpected change in the EMAE area, the sharp decline in revenues, and the fragility of domestic consumption. When referring to the activity estimator, he noted that “Last month’s data attracted a lot of attentionEspecially since consulting companies close to the ruling party expected a contraction of 0.8% to 1%. However, the index showed a positive result, mainly due to financial intermediation.
According to Alonso, the explanation lies in the price difference: “When we talk about a loan interest rate of 90% and I consider the peso at 29%, this is the difference.“, which has generated a strong boost for banks. However, he warned that credit remains inaccessible: “When one wants to get a loan, we find values of around 90%,” which harms the engines of future activity.
Fall in achievement and the impact of prohibitions
When analyzing the November group, Alonso He asked for caution:Now we seem to be taking everything with a grain of salt.“, after months of contradictory data. The final figure was 15.6 billion pesos, but with a real decline of 9% year-on-year. The biggest hit came from agriculture, after the zero deduction program.
He explained that “That liquidation was a record in three days“, approximately 7,000 million dollars, which left the following months with almost no income from exports. Therefore, he stated that “Export earnings in November were the lowest since 2008“, which is a crucial signal in the context of the need for dollars.
Asked whether the government had acted opportunistically by favoring a few companies, he replied that the pre-election scenario says it all: “Before the elections it was all or nothing“That is why all available tools were used, from treasury sales to external interventions.
Low consumption and 2026 uncertain
Alonso He warned that maintaining fiscal balance with declining revenues would imply cuts: “How to maintain financial balance with declining revenues: Reduce spending“, which includes adjustments to rates in 2026. This will affect income and deepen weak consumption.
Indicators are already showing a deterioration:VAT decreased by 9% per month“While the tax on balances and debts decreased by 11%, in addition to the collapse of patents.”Decreased by 25% compared to the previous month“, which reflects the impact of high prices.
to AlonsoThe equation boils down to a warning: a damaged real economy, crippled industry, and falling consumption all predict a very difficult start to 2026.