He Gross domestic product (GDP) recorded a slight improvement in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter, INDEC reported, allowing the Argentine economy to avoid recession. This data had already been brought forward in the Monthly Estimator of Economic Activity (EMAE), which the organization itself had revised upwards in previous months.
In this way, the original series was released in the third quarter Gross domestic product (GDP) recorded an increase of 3.3% compared to the same period last year. Seasonally adjusted, GDP grew by 0.3% compared to the second quarter of the year. Thus, the cumulative value for the first nine months of the year recorded an increase of 5.2% compared to the same period in 2024.
The economy avoided recession and recorded slight growth in the third quarter
Components of demand include, according to INDEC The strongest increase was observed in gross fixed capital formation, at 10.3% compared to the previous year. On the activity sector side, the increases are in financial intermediation (28.4% y-o-y), mining and quarrying (10.3% y-o-y), and hotels and restaurants (7.1% y-o-y).
As for them demandincreased seasonally adjusted, Exports at 6.4%; Private consumption at 0.2%; and public consumption with 0.5%. Gross fixed capital formation fell by 6.0%.
According to preliminary estimates, the macroeconomic development of the third quarter of 2025 was as follows: a 7.4% increase in global supply measured at 2004 prices, compared to the same period last year, due to a GDP growth of 3.3% and a fluctuation of imports of real goods and services of 23.7%.
In global demand in addition to the increase in 10.3% in gross fixed capital formation an increase of Exports of real goods and services rose by 10.2%, private consumption rose by 5.3% and public consumption showed a fluctuation of 1.7%.
Seasonally adjusted, based on the second quarter of 2025, Imports fell by 2.7%, private consumption recorded a fluctuation of 0.2%, public consumption increased by 0.5% and exports increased by 6.4%. while gross fixed capital formation fell by 6.0%.
Late last month, the Marco Lavagna-led institute surprised analysts by upgrading seven of the EMAE’s 2025 data. As a result, negative data that seemed to predict recession became positive.
“The seasonally adjusted EMAE is created indirectly by adding the seasonally adjusted values of each economic sector. Consequently, a significant increase in some sectors can increase the overall level, even if the others show more moderate fluctuations,” INDEC explained in a statement.
The INDEC explained why it revised upward economic activity data
At the end of November the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (Indec) remained at the center of public discussion even after it was distributed Monthly Estimator of Economic Activity (EMAE) September. The data presented on Tuesday not only showed a monthly recoveryhim, but he came accompanied by one Upward revision of the figures for July and August.
This adjustment ended shows a growth of 0.5% for the third quarter compared to the previous quarter, thus preventing the economy from chaining two consecutive quarters of decline, a technical requirement to speak of a recession.
The The retroactive correction quickly sparked distrust on social networks and among analystswhat led to the organism that leads Marco Lavagna publish an explanation. There it was made clear that the review was not responding to an arbitrary methodological change, but to the technical workings of the deseasonalization process itself.
According to Indec, the seasonally adjusted EMAE “is constructed indirectly”where the seasonally adjusted values of all sectors that make up economic activity are combined. This means that if some elements show strong improvements, the total can be changed even if the remaining elements show less progress.
The report also recalled that the seasonality adjustment method used for years is working mobile filterswhich requires the trend and seasonality to be recalculated each time new monthly data is included. For this reason, The final months of the series tend to show greater sensitivity to revisions. The arrival of new data requires not only processing its own seasonally adjusted value, but also checking how the movements are distributed between the seasonal component, the irregular component and the trend cycle.
In this sense, the organization stated: “As a result, a pattern that was previously interpreted as largely irregular begins to be interpreted as a more persistent change in activity levels. The variation previously classified as an ‘irregular component’ is now assigned by the method to the trend-cycle component. This explains why the trend that seemed negative until August shows a positive slope from September onwards.”.
The sectoral behavior in September was crucial for this recomposition. Internal analysis revealed that the improvement was particularly focused on: Financial intermediationwhich showed an interannual jump of 39.7%supported by the growth of loans and deposits – in public and private banks – and by the increase in commissions. They also added to the dynamic Companies and stock brokersboosted by a sharp increase in the trading volume of public securities.
The statement concluded “The combination of the composition effect driven by the performance of financial intermediation, together with the re-estimation of the seasonally adjusted method and the additional impact of September in the quarterly closing and adjustment to the seasonally adjusted GDP, explains that the recent trend of the EMAE, which previously looked negative, is now considered positive.”.
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