In a historic environmental setback, the European Commission will postpone a ban on gasoline and diesel cars in Europe. Scheduled for 2035, the obsolescence of the internal combustion engine has been the subject of intense lobbying by car manufacturers and governments in recent months, notably Germany, which celebrated the decision this Friday (12). Experts, however, see existential risks for the country’s businesses.
In a press interview in Heidelberg, Manfred Weber, president of the European People’s Party (EPP), which holds the largest group in the Strasbourg Parliament, said the decision would be announced on Tuesday (16), confirming what he had already revealed to the tabloid Bild this week. “The European Commission will present a clear proposal to end the ban.”
At his side, Friedrich Merz, one of the main defenders of the measure, once again mentioned “technological opening”, an indirect criticism of the policy imposed by Brussels two years ago, which envisaged zero net emissions in the automobile sector from 2035, thus making conventional models unrealizable. The reduction in emissions would fall to 90%.
“This now gives the sector real planning certainty.”
According to the Prime Minister, this approach does not mean an environmental step backwards, since the electrification of mobility will continue, but now with the help of synthetic fuels, hybrid models and “long-range” devices, an auxiliary combustion engine that guarantees great autonomy for electric motors.
There is also pressure for widespread adoption of biofuels.
“The reality is that there will still be millions of cars with combustion engines in the world in 2035, 2040 and 2050,” said the prime minister, who supported the campaign to end the veto in the same way as was used in the case of immigration. These two elements arouse popular appeal, even if research relativizes their electoral effects, and are politically exploited by the German ultra-right.
Like many European conservatives, Merz and Weber seek to regain votes lost to populism. According to the EPP leader, the decision on how to achieve climate goals should be left to markets and consumers.
“The ban on combustion engine technology is no longer on the agenda,” said the parliamentarian. “All engines currently manufactured in Germany can therefore continue to be produced and marketed.”
This argument is aimed directly at voters concerned about the future of their cars in the garage, but also at car manufacturers, who have spoken of disastrous scenarios of unemployment and factory closures. Electric vehicle sales did not take off as expected after the strict legislation was passed, although there was a recovery this year.
Countries that heavily subsidize electrification, such as Norway, have managed to gain the upper hand in the market. More than 90% of new vehicle sales in 2025 will be electric models. The German government is expected to resume its incentive program next year, but to a much more limited extent. The sector estimates that there is a lack of infrastructure to popularize electric vehicles, which represent 4% of the German vehicle fleet (including plug-in hybrids).
“By encouraging manufacturers to continue producing obsolete petrol vehicles in a rapidly electrifying world, the EU is putting its car industry at considerable risk of falling behind competition from China and other countries,” said Colin Walker of the Climate Intelligence Unit. “It’s a recipe for mass unemployment.”
In a letter to Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, Spanish President Pedro Sánchez made a similar observation: withdrawal would stifle investment in modernization and leave European companies behind in the technology race.
The environmentalist’s discourse is based on economic theory. Winner of this year’s Nobel Prize in Economics, alongside two other colleagues, Philippe Aghion is known for his studies on creative destruction. In a 2023 interview, he applied the concept to environmental issues stating that “companies that have innovated dirty technologies in the past tend to continue to innovate dirty technologies in the future.”
“You tend to continue doing what you were doing well and, therefore, you need government intervention to redirect technical change towards innovation, towards green technologies,” he explained. This was the explicit objective of the European legislation.
Automotive market experts were already predicting a complicated future for German manufacturers even before Brussels’ withdrawal. In an article in Focus magazine, Philipp Raasch described the scenarios in which the three major German brands, Volkswagen, BMW and Mercedes, will experience profound changes in the coming years.
The prognosis ranges from licensing the brand, which Audi is already doing in China, to “volvization”, a term that plays with the fate of the Swedish Volvo, which since 2010 has had its technology and commercial strategy under the command of the Chinese Geely. The author recalls that 20% of Mercedes shares already belong to Chinese investors.
German automakers reacted skeptically to Weber’s announcement. Along with the end of the ban on gasoline engines, other obligations await that respond to the sector in crisis. Von der Leyen advocates the launch of popular electric cars that take the place of Chinese competitors in fleets and rental services and plans to require the use of green steel in vehicle manufacturing.
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