“Every year, importers come in saying: ‘I need 100,000 tonnes’, ‘I need 200,000 tonnes to close the internal account’.” The sentence from consultant José Pimenta, of BMJ Consultoria, sums up the centrality of Brazilian agro-industry within the global board of directors. In a world where inflation, logistical shocks and protectionism are accumulating, Brazil has become a balancing factor, an essential complement for dozens of countries which depend on national production to supply their populations.
In the panel “The Future of Agro”, Pimenta stressed that this dependence is not occasional, it is structural. “Food security has become a geopolitical asset,” he said. China, India, Middle Eastern countries, several African markets and even major developed economies today, such as the United States, view Brazil as a pillar of stability.
It is no coincidence that since the pandemic, more than 3,000 protectionist measures have been taken around the world, and almost half of them come from the United States, the European Union and China, directly affecting agricultural trade. “In an environment like this, whoever can offer volume, consistency and quality wins space. And Brazil keeps its promises.”
But occupying this place in the world comes with responsibilities and pressures that the sector feels. It is in this tension between global opportunities and internal bottlenecks that the challenges for agribusiness lie over the next decade.
Competitiveness
Alexandre Pedro Schenkel, rural producer and president of the Brazilian Cotton Institute (Iba), stressed that to ensure this global role, competitiveness must be regained. “The Brazilian producer is at the limit. The cost of production has exploded,” he said. Fertilizers, biotechnologies, pesticides, everything has become more expensive. “Everyone in the chain has gained a lot over the last decade. Now everyone has to help balance the situation.”
Schenkel draws attention to something that the rest of the world still does not see clearly: the unequal conflict between natural and synthetic fibers. While Brazil is among the world’s largest producers of high-quality cotton, 95% of the fibers imported by the country are synthetic, mainly plastic.
“We are introducing into the country a problem of microplastics which will end up in the river, the sea and on the clothes of future generations. It is a public health debate.” For him, the future of Brazilian agriculture depends on the “organic” agenda: biofibers, biojuices, biofuels and biofoods.
In the soy industry, the challenge is not only to produce, it is to prove that production respects the rules, particularly environmental ones. “The difficulty today is not to comply, it is to prove that we have respected it,” explained Pedro Garcia, sustainable development manager at Abiove.
The Forest Code, increasing traceability and control tools are recognized globally, but new European rules have taken the pressure to another level. “The markets want to see, they want full transparency. And companies need to show in detail where the grain comes from and how the control is carried out.”
For Garcia, Brazil has technical and legal conditions to respect. The problem is doing so at the speed required by the international market, especially when external discourse about the country oscillates between trust and distrust.
Infrastructure
External pressure for reliability faces a known and persistent internal bottleneck: logistics and storage. “We have reached the point where there is a supply, a demand, a buyer and we cannot deliver,” summarizes Sérgio Bortolozzo, president of the Brazilian Rural Society (SRB).
He points out that the country has made progress in ports, railways and transport, but has not solved the basic problems, namely internal infrastructure. In Brazil, 80% of agricultural freight (an index that represents internal consumption) travels on congested roads. And with high interest rates, it has become impossible for producers to invest in building their own silos.
“No one can afford to finance storage at 18%, 20% per year.” For Bortolozzo, there is also an image battle to wage – and so far lost. “Agriculture speaks to the converted. We must explain to the country what we are, what we do, how we produce.”
Insecurity
Tania Zanella, president of the Instituto Pensar Agro and director of the Organization of Brazilian Cooperatives, incorporates the concerns of others into the same plot. For her, Brazil will only maintain its global position if it offers producers legal, regulatory and operational security. “It’s impressive: we are responsible for 25% of GDP, but we live under a permanent sword. Rules change, interpretations change, processes change. It hinders investment decisions.”
Central instruments such as the Harvest Plan, rural insurance and climate risk mitigation mechanisms evolve too slowly in the face of increasing extreme events. And this reinforces the role of cooperativism as a network of protection and scale: 53% of the country’s grain production already passes through cooperatives, and 71% of cooperative members are family farmers. “Cooperativism provides access to technology, credit, assistance and the market. It holds the bar.”
If Brazil has enough of a reputation for climate, scale, technology and agriculture to continue to be many countries’ “plan B, C and D,” it cannot fail to do its homework, according to experts on the subject gathered at the Estadão Agro Summit. And the list of tasks is long: logistics, regulatory predictability, competitiveness, communication and proof of sustainability.
If you don’t, other providers will take their place. If you do so, it strengthens your strategic position in the world. Or again, Schenkel’s analogy is the one that appears on the curve: “When the going gets tough, the Brazilian producer is the Ayrton Senna of world agriculture, who stood out more than the others in the rain.”
Passport to competitiveness
At the opening of the Agro Summit 2025Euripedes Alcântara, director of journalism at Grupo Estado, drew attention to the fact that the national agribusiness is now betting on technology as a passport to competitiveness. “Faced with stricter global rules, such as the requirement for traceability of European UnionBrazil must better communicate its progress and accelerate innovation,” analyzed the journalist.
Furthermore, according to Alcântara, the digitalization of surveillance and intelligence systems applied to the field becomes essential to diversify markets, guarantee sustainability and affirm the country’s strategic role in global food security.
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