The fiebre del oro continues these months of Nochebuena. The amount of gold metal is paid for the first time beyond 4,500 dollars, after seeing an allocation around 1%. The safe haven asset par excellence accumulates a revaluation of more than 70% in 2025, a year that will end as its best year since 1979. The plateau is also advancing and reorganizing its historical maximums, just like copper.
Types of falling expectations in the United States, falling dollar and geopolitical instability are governing precious metals. In both cases, they are on track to record their highest annual increases since 1979. Fear of shortages is driving the metal industry, key to the energy transition.
Gold has soared on increased buying from central banks and the influx of money into bullion-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Trump’s aggressive moves to reshape global trade, as well as his threats against the independence of the Federal Reserve, have reignited the dizzying recovery from earlier this year.
Another factor driving gold has been central banks, which have accelerated their purchases since the outbreak of war in Ukraine in 2022. The role of monetary policy guardians as buyers is crucial in the intensity of the price rise. The Central Bank of China is one of the largest buyers and, according to experts, has acquired the metal in quantities believed to be higher than officially declared. Lack of transparency is definitely common among geostrategic assets.
In addition to gold purchases by central banks, the prospect of further type cuts by the Fed in 2026, especially after inflation of 2.7% in November was much better than expected, is lowering the price of the dollar against major currencies, making it cheaper for inverters to buy gold in the United States.
Thus, inverters are deprived of the sovereign bonds and currencies in which they are denominated, lest their value erode over time due to soaring debt levels.
Besides gold, the price of the plate accelerated this particular “rally” with an increase of 2.3% compared to the previous session, reaching a new record of 72.75 dollars per ounce. By 2025, the price of silver will rise approximately 150%.
Among industrial metals, copper stands out, key to the energy transition. The threat of shortages and ongoing supply shortages have driven the price of copper up more than 30% this year, to the point where analysts will continue through 2026, with forecasts indicating the metal could even reach $15,000 per tonne.
Due to missing a few days of trading over the past year on the London Metals Exchange (LME), copper rose almost 40%, its highest annual turnover since 2009. That target has been pushed back in recent months as growing concerns about shrinking global supply outweighed slowing demand. Copper is also essential for building data centers.
The move in the copper price is a clear sign of growing supply tightness, and difficult negotiations of annual mining contracts resulted in a deal in which smelters received just over $0 in processing rates, an all-time low.
As a result, because their profit margins were reduced, some foundries were forced to close or reduce their production. Further disruptions could increase pressure on the supply of refined metals traded on the LME and other futures exchanges.
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