Gosley’s visit to Caracas confirms the expansion of dialogue channels to avoid conflicts

• “Lifeline”: Understand how JBS’s actions in Venezuela created a close relationship between Gosley and Maduro
• Joga Chakra: Something will happen in Venezuela

In Brasilia, information about the JBS Group owner’s trip to the Venezuelan capital – where he stayed for less than 24 hours – was downplayed by official sources, in addition to denying any connection from the Brazilian government to Gosli’s trip to Caracas, although the Planalto Palace was aware of the initiative. Diplomatic sources assure us that no contact has been made between the businessman and the Brazilian embassy either. According to Bloomberg, the Trump administration was also aware of the trip, but there was no coordination with Washington.

The sources interviewed by Globo confirmed that businessmen with interests in Venezuela, as is the case with the owner of JBS Group, “usually inquire about the situation in the country, and are interested in expanding their business there.” The same sources confirmed that JBS representatives have already held consultations in Palacio do Planalto on the situation in Venezuela.

The Brazilian group is not the only one interested in the country that has, among other attractions, the largest oil reserves in the world. In Caracas, financial analysts comment that the interest of Brazilian and American businessmen in investing in Venezuela has increased. Maduro’s Venezuela has creditors who want what is owed to them, and countries interested in continuing to do business in the country. But for all these potential future investors, the country needs to climb out of its hole and achieve, for example, the suspension of more than a thousand sanctions mainly implemented by the United States.

In a recent report on the situation in the Caribbean, where the United States continues to flex its military muscle and, in the words of a Brazilian government source, “weapons are still being prepared” against Venezuela, the Miami Herald pointed to three countries that are, to some extent, involved in efforts to prevent the crisis from escalating: Turkey, Qatar and Brazil. The report did not mention Colombia, but the government of Gustavo Petro offered Cartagena as a place for negotiations.

• Understands: Maduro is losing allies with the political transformation in Latin America and under the increasingly strong American siege

Sources in Brasilia commented that the Brazilian government used the talks with Trump to express its fear of an attack and defend the need for a “political and diplomatic” solution. But the sources confirmed that Lula’s government is not coordinating with neighboring countries, but is merely “talking.” One source stressed that the statement would only happen “in the event of an American attack.”

In the case of Turkey, Amdat Oner, a former diplomat who served at his country’s embassy in Caracas from 2014 to 2016, explains, “The role of mediator in various conflicts is one of the core priorities of Turkish foreign policy. The same applies to Qatar. We have seen this in cases in the Middle East and Africa.”

– Venezuela, for Turkey, is a gateway to Latin America. Türkiye has invested in Venezuela and wants to maintain its interests there. (President Recep Tayyip) Erdogan has a good personal relationship with both Maduro and Trump, and seeks to take advantage of this influence to be at the negotiating table – the former Turkish diplomat, who lives in the United States and works as an international analyst, explained to GLOBO.

He confirmed the opening of what he called “unofficial channels of communication” between his country and Venezuela to address the conflict with the United States during the Trump era. For Oner, “Turkey could offer asylum to Maduro. Playing a relevant role in Venezuela would allow Erdogan to gain importance compared to Trump.” It is worth noting that Türkiye, unlike countries such as Russia and China, which is also an important ally of leader Chavez, has not questioned US military harassment of Venezuela.

For Ankara, there is a lot at stake in its relationship with the United States.

In 2019, during his first term, Trump imposed sanctions on Türkiye for its purchase of Russian weapons and its actions against the Kurds in Syria. Today, Erdogan seems more concerned about any gesture that might anger the Americans. On the other hand, Russia is in a different position and, according to sources, will not participate in mediation efforts between Venezuela and the United States. on the contrary. There are senior officers from the Russian Armed Forces in the city, and about a month ago a “plane carrying Russian military equipment” arrived in the country.

Qatar has already been the scene of meetings between authorities from the Chavez dictatorship and American representatives during Joe Biden’s government, without any progress. Venezuelan sources confirm that meetings took place after Trump’s inauguration, on January 20, and that Maduro offered to gradually leave power in the middle of the year, with conditions. One of them would be to maintain control of the armed forces. Another reason is that this process is stipulated in the country’s constitution, which implies the possibility of holding a referendum to revoke Maduro’s mandate – because the other two constitutional alternatives would be death and sick leave.

Impeachment referendums can only be held after three years in office, much longer than Americans imagine. Another Miami Herald report said that in one of the phone calls between Trump and Maduro, the American told the Venezuelan, “You can save yourself, you can save the people close to you. But you must leave the country now.” Analysts in Caracas, the former Turkish diplomat, and Brazilian government sources believe that the US government will not achieve anything with these types of proposals.