The Casa Rosada concludes the round of dialogue with the governors, understanding that they are key to political negotiations and the functioning of Congress.
The provinces are geographically divided into three groups. On the one hand, the ten that make up the “Great North”.namely Salta, Santiago del Estero, Catamarca, La Rioja, Jujuy, Formosa, Chaco, Misiones, Corrientes and Tucumán. They have a certain institutional organization that allows them to make collective statements, but politically they define themselves individually. They are at the other end of the country six provinces of the Patagonia region: La Pampa, Río Negro, Neuquén, Chubut, Santa Cruz and Tierra del Fuego.
They gain cohesion in the development of hydrocarbons and natural resources, but also maintain special interests. There is also the central region, whose province is identified by its reputation “productive strip” whose axis is agriculture: Santa Fe and Córdoba join Entre Ríos, Mendoza and San Luis; On the one hand, San Juan integrates the central region, although it has characteristics of the larger north, which it does not integrate.
From this group, the United Provinces sector emerged in the last election, which failed in the last election. The city of Buenos Aires and the province would form a fourth region in itself, but it could be the AMBA, consisting of the capital and Greater Buenos Aires, a predominantly urban region, while the interior of the province shares the interests and characteristics of the productive area.
However, this geographical and geopolitical orientation overlaps with another political orientation that has weakened. On the one hand, the majority of governors are still Peronist, In one extreme case, however, are those from Formosa, La Rioja, Buenos Aires and Tierra del Fuego who have the greatest relationship and affinity with former Vice President Cristina Kirchner.
In the north of the country, however, there are those from Salta, Jujuy, Catamarca, Tucumán and Misiones who are closest to the government and are making the most progress in negotiations with it. They could form their own provincial bloc, which would be projected across the two houses of Congress. The first two have a good relationship with Sergio Massa, although they maintained dialogue and agreement with him in the first part of Milei’s government.
The Peronism of Córdoba traditionally occupies a special position, always far removed from Kirchnerism. Mendoza, an ally of Milei, and Corrientes, who was a member of the United Provinces group, stay away from radicalism. Patagonians have the majority of governors elected by the PRO, but in reality they function as political parties in the province. This is the case of Santa Cruz, Chubut and Río Negro, the latter being of Peronist origin. The Peronist governor of La Pampa wavered around Cristina but ultimately retained his independence. Neuquén maintains its historical line of provincialism. San Luis occupies a position between the PRO and La Libertad Avanza, while San Juan is Peronist and relatively independent. It is not easy to compose a picture for the Casa Rosada.
Interior Minister Diego Santilli, with the support of Chief of Staff Manuel Adorni, has completed his round of talks and contacts with all the governors who signed the May Pact. They say that the Casa Rosada has opened itself to dialogue, but without a concrete agenda, without which it will be very difficult to move forward in negotiations or agreements. The immediate issues facing the gubernatorial election were the change in ATN distribution and participation in the fuel tax.
It’s something Governors hope to gain their support for budget approval. But so far the president aims to seek approval from both chambers in December, which would force new talks to reach agreements that have not yet been negotiated. As we have seen, there is a fragile and even contradictory unity between the governors, but on certain issues they agree. Negotiations will actually begin after December 10th, when elected lawmakers take office on October 26th.
The executive branch is then stronger in both chambers of Congress, but does not have a majority in either. It improves your negotiation skills, but you have to practice it. Milei’s challenge will be demonstrate its ability to align its objectives with those of the governors, which are the same as in his first two years of reign.
Now in both chambers of Congress The influence of governors is decreasing, but with limitations and ambiguity. In the lower house, neither the ruling party nor the opposition are able to form blocs that would allow them to achieve their own majority, which requires one hundred and twenty-nine MPs. The real conflict is what strength the first minority will have, that is, a larger number than the second, but without reaching the majority that allows the meetings to be called.
The ruling party added the deputies of La Libertad Avanza, part of the PRO, some radicals and splinters of the ruling party itself, It is approaching one hundred national representatives.
In return the Homeland Force blockwhich unites Peronism for the time being, has almost the same number, but this is decreasing, although in general there are individual splits among the Kirchnerist deputies. Today it is likely that the national ruling party will eventually succeed in becoming the first minority thanks to only a few MPs. In the Senate the situation is reversed. Peronism suffers from defections, reducing its bench to around thirty deputies. seven fewer than necessary to achieve an absolute majority. In return, La Libertad Avanza would approach the twenty-four legislators together with senators from the PRO, Radicals and Independents.
That means that in this house Peronism could be the first minoritybut lost the absolute majority and the national governing party instead became the second minority. This panorama forces negotiations and gives legislators who do not agree in either bloc the opportunity to be in the organizing phase, and in this the governors will play a key role.
The province of Santa Fe has just given a sign of autonomy The governors achieve this by managing to incur $800 million in debt at an interest rate of 8.1%, and the governors of Buenos Aires achieved the same through laborious inter-provincial negotiations.
The political struggle between the ruling party and the opposition in both houses of Congress is at the center of the political scene, but the real power lies in the negotiations between the Casa Rosada and the governors.
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