Greece faces a silent but devastating challenge that threatens its economic, social and territorial future: an unprecedented demographic collapse. As the country tries to regain stability after a decade of financial crisis and intervention economics, a new phenomenon is progressing unchecked. THE … The combination of a plummeting birth rate, massive emigration of highly qualified young people and accelerated aging of the population is rapidly transforming the human map of the country.
The forecasts are alarming: according to experts, By 2050, Greece’s population could be reduced by a quarter if measures capable of stopping the current trend are not implemented in time. Vyron Kotzamanis, director of the Institute for Research and Demographic Studies, explains to ABC that the current demographic picture of the country is deeply influenced by the super concentration of the population in an extremely small part of the territory: in 2021, 50% of the population lived in only 2% of the country’s area, 80% was concentrated in 277 of 1,036 municipalities, and the same percentage resided in only 710 of 1 036 municipalities. 12,500 inhabited colonies. This phenomenon, he emphasizes, is a consequence of the post-war development model and the absence of a national regional development strategy.
Added to this is the increased life expectancythe reduction in the number of children per couple, the delay in the age of motherhood and the reduction in the population of childbearing age. According to Kotzamanis, the combination of all these factors has caused the reversal of natural growth since 2010, recording between 2011 and 2024, 500,000 more deaths than births. “In Greece, the percentage of childless women in generations born after 1980 is one of the highest in the EU, while the number of children among younger generations is extremely low (less than 1.5 children per woman), far from the 2.1 needed to maintain population stability,” the expert underlines.
The Greek population is aging rapidly. In 1971, there were 980,000 people over 65 (11% of the population); There are currently 2.45 million (23.5% of the total). Those over 85 have also multiplied: from 70,000 in 1917 (0.07% of the population), they have today increased to more than 400,000 (3.8%). “Greece is – and will remain in the coming decades – one of the oldest countries in the EU, both in terms of the percentage of people over 65 and in terms of average and median age,” he says.
Brain drain
The exodus of young people further aggravates the crisis. A recent study published by the Institute for Demographic Studies and Research and the University of Thessaly attributes this brain drain not only to economic reasons, but also to the scarcity of decent job opportunities, widespread precariousness and the lack of meritocracy in Greece. The report also highlights that access to housing constitutes a crucial obstacle for young people, forced to stay at home until their thirties.
Greece’s demographic collapse has an immediate impact on the education system, where Every year, schools close due to lack of studentsmainly in early childhood and primary education centers, where the reduction in enrollment has increased in recent years.
According to data from the Ministry of Education, since 2018 there are more than 110,000 fewer students in primary education. This school year, more than 700 schools across Greece have closed, mostly primary schools. Furthermore, for the first time the impact is not only on small islands or mountain towns, but in the Attica region 77 schools have closed due to lack of students. The Hellenic Statistical Authority confirms that the impact of the low birth rate is also felt in secondary education, where the effects are starting to be visible in many schools.
Experts warn that if this trend continues and the birth rate remains at its current rate, By 2035, 430,000 students will have disappearedi.e. a third of the students currently enrolled at the school.
Government measures
Given the critical demographic situation, the executive of Kyriakos Mitsotakis announced last September the granting of 1.6 billion euros in tax exemptions, intended in particular for large families and which will come into force in January. The priority goal is to support households with children: “We need to understand what it means to raise children today, especially many children,” Mitsotakis explained at a conference in November.
Measures of the new tax reform include the elimination of personal income tax for families with four or more children and a reduction of two points for each additional child. They are also considering the abolition of the ICI in municipalities with less than 1,500 inhabitants, the reduction of VAT in islands with up to 20,000 inhabitants and the creation of a baby check of €2,400 for each birth. In addition to these exemptions, tax incentives have also been granted to retirees who wish to continue working without reducing their pension; More than 200,000 of them remain active in the labor market by asserting their rights.
Kotzamani warns that it must be taken into account that the measures taken will not immediately reverse existing trends and emphasizes that they will not radically change existing conditions immediately, but rather in the long term. He also underlines that international experience has shown that “subsidy policies have an extremely limited scope if they are not accompanied by specific and effective measures”.
According to the expert, to reverse the negative trend it is necessary to combine economic policies with structural measuressuch as reducing the direct and indirect economic cost linked to the birth and education of children, improving family-work balance, resolving the housing problem in urban centers through a vast social rent program, reducing the unemployment rate and improving labor relations. Furthermore, the real income of younger people must be increased, eliminating uncertainty and lack of confidence and providing protection against future risks: “Any attempt to address low fertility in the country must start with a radical improvement in living conditions and labor policies. »
On the other hand, the decrease in the population is concentrated in the groups from 0 to 19 years old and from 20 to 64 years old, while those over 65 years old will increase, probably reaching 3 million in 2060 compared to 2.45 currently. To avoid a decrease in the total population, it would be necessary, according to the expert, to have a very positive migratory balance with more entries than exits in the next 35 years. This would limit the deficit of births compared to deaths, increase the number of women of childbearing age, slow down demographic aging and avoid the decline in the working age population (between 20 and 64), which currently stands at around 4 million and is expected to decline considerably if migration is zero.
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