Guardiola gets closer to the absolute majority and the PSOE sinks in Extremadura

In this way, Guardiola’s PP would obtain the support of 43% of voters, which would ensure him between 31 and 32 deputies in the Regional Assembly, leaving him with only two or one, in the best case, to reach the long-awaited absolute majority (set at 33) which would give him the security of governing the region alone. This is a great popular success in a traditionally left-wing community. Thus, it would exceed by a little more than four points the results obtained in 2023, when it was able to govern thanks to the support of Vox after having equalized 28 seats with the Socialists of Fernández Vara, even if in percentage of votes it was a little lower: 38.78% against 39.90% for the Socialists.

This would be the second time in the region’s history that the People’s Party won votes and seats. Already during the 2011 elections, José Antonio Monago won a big victory against Fernández Vara’s socialists with 32 seats and 46.13% of the vote. An even bigger victory than the one GAD3 attributes to Guardiola. Then Monago reigned. For the first time in history, the region had a PP government, thanks to the abstention of Izquierda Unida.

The comparison with 2011 also brings another reflection on a change which could be observed next Sunday evening. For the first time in the existence of this autonomous community, the vote of the right-wing parties (PP and Vox) would exceed that of the left-wing parties, the culmination of a sociological turning point in the region.

In this sense, those of Santiago Abascal, represented in Extremadura by the most unknown candidate, Óscar Fernández Calle, would considerably improve their results of 2023, when they won five seats. It would go from 8.1% of the votes to 12.7%, to reach between 7 and 9 deputies. However, this result still has a somewhat unsatisfactory aftertaste for this formation. Firstly because it does not reflect the rise in power that the party seems to be experiencing at the national level and in other autonomous communities. And secondly, because this early call was caused by the lack of agreement between PP and Vox to agree on budgets and, therefore, those of Abascal would have hoped to obtain greater support to have a stronger position against a Guardiola close to the absolute majority.

We must not forget that Vox had a complex legislature in Extremadura. The departure of the regional executive was traumatic and divided the team, in addition to transforming the confrontation with Guardiola into a crusade. In this region, unlike what happens in others such as the Valencian Community or Murcia, the harmony between PP and Vox is not only distant but is also one of the places where the relationship is most acrimonious. For all these reasons, Abascal was hyperpresent in the region during the campaign, accompanied by party figures at the national level such as deputies José María Figaredo or Carlos H. Quero, trying to promote his candidate.

The big loser will be Gallardo

And so we arrive at what everything indicates to be the big loser of election night: the socialist Miguel Ángel Gallardo. The candidate could go down in history as the one who led the PSOE to its worst electoral result in the region. GAD3 forecasts 27.1% support and between 19 and 20 seats, which represents a drop of almost thirteen points and eight or nine deputies. A terrible result in a community where the socialists managed to gather more than half of the votes in several elections (in 1983, 1991, 2003 and 2007).

It is obvious that Gallardo is not coming to the elections at the best time. While waiting for the trial in which he is accused of prevarication and influence peddling in the case of the creation of the position in the Provincial Delegation of Badajoz for the brother of the President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, which will take place next May, Gallardo maintains his positions due to an “anti-law” clause that the PSOE approved in its statutes and up to 76% of those who voted for his party in 2023, believe that he should not be the candidate of training, according to this same GAD3 survey. We must also not forget that Gallardo was not a Sánchez, who was certainly involved in the campaign, but that their destinies were linked by the case of his brother and by the electoral progress. All this without taking into account the impact that the constant news of the various corruption investigations which affect the party and the uncontrolled wave of cases of sexual harassment which is shaking it throughout the national geography can have on the mass of socialist voters.

The troubled waters of socialism in which Podemos-IU-AV, led by Irene de Miguel, seems to be fishing, an experiment of a regional nature which seems to predict the capture of the Sumar project and the not too strong growth of Podemos to the left of the PSOE. The purples would manage to quantitatively improve their 2023 results, jumping by four percentage points to obtain 10% of the votes and six seats. However, this rise would not compensate for the socialist collapse and would seem to confirm the turn to the right of Extremadurians.

Trends which will mark next Sunday evening and which, if they are confirmed, will surely have numerous and varied readings at the regional and national level.