Colombia recorded a 7.6% increase in murders in the first three years of Gustavo Petro’s government, reaching 40,663 victims compared to previous presidential periods. This emerges from the latest report from the Peace and Security Center of the University Externado de Colombia, which documents the highest number of murders in the country since 2014 and warns of a trend towards stagnation in the reduction of lethal violence.
According to the data presented, the 40,663 homicides registered between August 2022 and August 2025 represent 2,862 cases more than the three-year term of Iván Duque (37,795 victims) and 4,017 more than the second term of Juan Manuel Santos (36,646 murders). The annual average of violent deaths in the current administration is 13,554 events, higher than the 12,598 per year under Duque and 12,215 under Santos.
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The Externadista Center for Peace and Security report warns that “homicidal violence has not declined with the Total Peace policy.”Flagship proposal of Gustavo Petro’s government. The most critical period was concentrated between August 2024 and August 2025: 13,817 murders in a single year, equivalent to one death every 39 minutes.
This situation shows a “sustained plateau” in the level of violencewhich deviates from the expected pause following the entry into force of new peace policies and is met with public skepticism reflected in recent surveys such as the Invamer survey, in which 61.5% of respondents believe that Colombia is approaching the level of violence of the past.
The deterioration was not uniform. The Peace and Security Center’s analysis indicates that the Caribbean region and the northeast of the country are the epicenters of the surge. On the Caribbean coast, murders rose from 6,512 (under Duque) to 9,382 (in Petro), an increase of 2,870 additional murders. Bolívar recorded +870 homicides (+72.7%); Magdalena added +811 (+95%); Atlantic, +803 (+48.7%); Santander, +530 (+63%); Caesar, +425 (+63.3%); and Huila, +312 (+40.1%).
In these departments there are clashes between armed structures such as the Clan del Golfo, dissidents from the defunct FARC, the ELN and urban gangs.driven by illicit income, illegal mining, drug trafficking and the weak state presence.
The Caribbean region is also setting historical records: Atlántico has its highest rate in a decade (32.8 murders per 100,000 inhabitants); Bolívar exercises “high force” for the first time in 12 years; and Magdalena achieves 36.6 in the same ratio.
El Catatumbo in Norte de Santander also appears as a critical core. The department recorded 141 additional homicides during the Petro period, a 33.8% increase over the last year analyzedaccording to the Peace Center.
Municipalities like Tibú, where the number of crimes increased from 29 in 2024 to 129 in 2025, reached a rate of 187.5 murders per 100,000 inhabitants. Confrontations between ELN, dissidents and criminal structures linked to the illicit economy have led to evictions, detentions and targeted killings.
While some departments are concentrating the increase, others are seeing a decline in homicides. Antioch record 1,407 fewer deaths (−21.3%); Narino, −508 (−29.6%); And Cordova, −230 (−21.7%). In addition to targeted institutional measures, this decline is partly due to the relocation of crime to other, more vulnerable areas.
At the urban level, major cities experience different behaviors. The report documents increases in Bogotá, Cartagena, Valledupar, Santa Marta, Barranquilla, Soledad, Cúcuta and Villavicenciowhile Cali, Medellín, Montería and Bello recorded declines. About a third of the country’s murders occur in large cities, while in small communities such as Tame, Puerto Tejada, Candelaria and Corinto, rates are up to six times the national average.
The Central-East region also reflects growth, recording 430 additional homicides during the Petro period (from 4,764 to 5,194). According to the researchers Bogotá concentrated most of the uptick, rising from 3,198 to 3,427 murders, an increase of 7.16%. Cundinamarca and Boyacá also recorded relative increases.
In the last recorded year, there were 162 additional homicides in Bogotá, a difference of 14.8% compared to 2023. The diagnosis of the Externadista Center for Peace and Security, links this deterioration to disputes between criminal structures, micro-trafficking and tensions in peripheral areas.
The historical series shows that the annual decline in homicides between 2010 and 2024 was just 0.2 points per year. Projections suggest that without structural changes, Colombia would reach a rate of just 10 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants by 2080, which would mean almost 250,000 additional deaths over the next 20 years – half of them young people.
More than 300 municipalities reported no homicides in the last three years, especially in Boyacá and Cundinamarca, showing the territorial disparity of the phenomenon. The report confirms that the nationwide rise in murders is mainly linked to certain critical areas where armed conflicts, reorganized urban violence and expanding black economies intersect.
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