the Inflation in November will reach 2.3% This is according to the average of consulting companies participating in the Market Expectations Survey (REM) prepared by the Central Bank. This indicator is +0.4 points compared to the previous REM. For the last month of 2025, headline inflation is expected to reach 2.1% (+0.1 basis point compared to previous REM) continuing the monthly downward trajectory extending until May 2026 until it reaches 1.5%.
The year will end with Inflation 30.4% (+0.8 points above previous REM), while L It is expected to reach 19.6% in 2026.
Regarding the exchange rate, the average REM consulting firm expects this The dollar price will be located in $1,473 in December. The top 10 analysts expect the dollar to be worth $1,481 in December.
Level of activity and unemployment
In a November survey, the REM analyst group estimated that in the third quarter of the year seasonally adjusted GDP would have grown by 0.5% compared to the second quarter of 2025, reflecting the decline expected until the ex-REM (+1.0 basis points compared to the ex-REM). In the fourth quarter, an increase of 0.8% is expected.
GDP will close in 2025 with an increase of 4.4%. With a downward correction of +0.5 points compared to October.
Advisors expect this Unemployment will reach 7.5% In the third quarter and decreases to 7.2% for the last period of 2025.
The BCRA cut interest rates again ahead of a major Treasury tender
With regard to foreign trade, REM estimates a surplus of $8,527 millions, Due to exports worth 85,667 million US dollars and imports worth 77,140 million US dollars.
Finally, the primary financial outcome forecast for the national non-financial public sector made by participants in the regional market movement was a surplus of $12.9 trillion by 2025 (-359 billion compared to previous REM). The average of the top 10 expects a primary surplus of $13.2 trillion. No participant expects the primary surplus to be less than $10 trillion this year.
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