The announcement by the President of the United States last week Donald Trump about a “total and complete blockade” of oil tankers carrying it Venezuela shocked the regional board.
As the White House tries to choke off government revenue Nicolas Madurothe international market is watching how this geopolitical movement influences Crude oil prices and what actual impact it will have on emerging markets such as Dead cow.
Washington’s strategy consists of A military operation in which warships surround the coast of Venezuela to prevent maritime traffic. In fact, U.S. forces have already seized an oil tanker loaded with sanctioned crude oil from Venezuela and Iran, an act that Caracas described as “international piracy.”
According to S&P Global Commodities Insights, the pressure is already having an impact: The number of ships entering Venezuelan waters fell from 24 to 17 in just one month. The Treasury Department also imposed sanctions on six shipping companies and forced several ships to leave the Caribbean to avoid seizure.
But despite the tension, analysts agree Venezuela’s export volume barely accounts for 1% of world supply. Although the blockade announcement led to a slight temporary recovery – Brent above $60 and WTI above $56 – the overall trend for 2025 shows a continued decline.
WTI-regulated U.S. oil prices have fallen 22% so far this year and are on track for their worst performance since 2018. Brent, on the other hand, has lost 20% so far in 2025, marking its worst annual performance since the pandemic year, 2020.
The Impact of the Venezuelan Crisis in Vaca Muerta
For Argentina, and especially for the development of Vaca Muerta, this dynamic is crucial due to two key factors: the first of which is the export price of crude oil The country is growing to a record level of over $10,000 million in 2025 and nourish its energy balance.
Vaca Muerta needs stable international prices that are as high as possible guarantee the profitability of its unconventional drilling and ensure the availability of resources for the millions it has to invest in expanding the infrastructure for its crude oil and gas export platforms.
But the market is just around the corner a “super glut” of offers by 2026resulting in downward pressure on prices. If Venezuela’s blockade fails to maintain the value of a barrel above production costs, the pace of investment in the Neuquén Basin could slow.
Another factor is competition for investments. As Trump tightens sanctions, companies like Chevron are in a precarious balance. The American oil company still operates in Venezuela with special permitsalthough it only exports a fraction of its production.
If risk increases dramatically in Venezuela, capital could Consider with greater interest the relative stability that Argentina offersalthough Brent below $60 is always a warning sign for the sector.
A well-supplied market is in sight
The International Energy Agency (IEA) warns that despite disruptions in sanctioned countries such as Russia and Venezuela The market will remain well supplied in 2026. The global surplus is estimated at 3.84 million barrels per day, a significant surplus that limits the impact of a regional lockdown.
In this scenario, Vaca Muerta finds itself at a crossroads: Maduro’s blockade eliminates a direct black market competitor in the short term, but weakness in global demand and excess non-OPEC supply (led by the US itself) puts a limit on Argentina’s export ambitions.
There are different forecasts for next year the continuation of a low price cycle with values that some analysts estimate at around $53 and even $50 per barrel a serious blow to conventional oil This has higher costs and a much lower profitability than Vaca Muerta
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