image source, Getty Images
-
Reading time: 6 minutes
For Venezuela, oil is not just an export good. It represents the central axis of its economy and the main source of revenue and foreign exchange with which the country imports food, medicine and other essential goods.
For this reason, the “total and complete” blockade announced by US President Donald Trump on Tuesday against sanctioned oil tankers entering or leaving Venezuela could affect not only the government of Nicolás Maduro, but also large sections of the Venezuelan population.
Several experts warn that a measure of this magnitude could also be counterproductive for Washington.
Trump announced the decision on his social networks, in which he accused the Maduro government of using “stolen” oil to finance itself and support “drug terrorism, human trafficking, murders and kidnappings.”
His statements come a week after Washington seized an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela, an action that Caracas denounced as “brazen theft” and “an act of piracy.”
The US President also stated this Tuesday in Truth Social that Venezuela is “completely surrounded by the largest navy ever assembled in the history of South America,” adding that this military presence “will continue to increase” and that it will be “something unprecedented.”
Venezuela – which has the world’s largest proven oil reserves – has condemned the blockade order as a “grotesque threat” that Maduro’s government says aims to “steal” the country’s wealth.
Since September, the United States has established a significant military presence off the coast of Venezuela in the Caribbean, including more than 15,000 troops and the world’s largest aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford.
The U.S. military also carried out a series of airstrikes against ships in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific, killing at least 95 people.
President Trump reiterates that the aim of this military campaign is to combat drug trafficking in the region and accuses Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro of leading the so-called Sun Cartel.
However, various analysts claim that the strategy could also be aimed at spurring regime change in Venezuela.
More than 30 sanctioned ships are operating in Venezuela
Venezuela currently produces about 1 million barrels of crude oil per day, which is about 1% of world production.
A figure that contrasts with the more than 3 million barrels a day the country produced in 1998, a year before Maduro’s political and ideological mentor, former President Hugo Chávez, came to power.
The drop in production is a response to a combination of mismanagement, lack of investment in the industry, loss of qualified personnel, corruption and international sanctions.
Therefore, the impact of an oil blockade on the global market would be limited, at least in the short term.
But for millions of Venezuelans, the consequences could be much deeper and more direct.
image source, Getty Images
When President Donald Trump imposed a package of tough economic sanctions on Venezuela in 2018, during his first term in office, the measure deepened the already severe economic and humanitarian crisis facing the South American country.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that Venezuela’s economy contracted by about 15% this year alone, marking one of the sharpest declines in its recent history.
Christopher Sabatini, senior researcher for Latin America at the London think tank Chatham House, explains that the blockade announced by Trump “could have even more devastating effects if it is maintained and prolonged.”
“I think the Trump administration hopes to quickly reverse this measure. They hope that the hyperbolic and inflammatory language they used in Truth Social will turn Maduro’s inner circle against him and encourage a quick transition,” he tells BBC Mundo.
“But if this does not happen, a major crisis can be expected, since a large part of Venezuelan exports are transported on such sanctioned ships,” he adds.
“And the revenue from these exports is used not only to pay and bribe bureaucrats, but also to buy medicine and food, so major shortages are expected in both.”
A recent report by Transparencia Venezuela found that 41% of the oil tankers (40) that sailed off the coast of Venezuela in November were sanctioned vessels belonging to the so-called ghost ship fleet.
For its part, the independent tracking service Tanker Trackers estimates that around 37 ships on the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctions list were operating in Venezuelan waters at the beginning of this month.
Venezuelan economist Francisco Monaldi, director of the Latin American Energy Program at the Baker Institute at Rice University in Houston, points out that the measure announced by Trump will also force Nicolás Maduro’s government to offer larger discounts on the oil it sells through informal channels to avoid sanctions.
“In any scenario, this will lead to a decline in income, which in turn will lead to a devaluation of the bolivar and an increase in inflation. And if the situation persists, there will likely be a significant decline in GDP,” he adds.
According to its World Economic Outlook report published on October 14, 2025, the IMF predicted that inflation in Venezuela will be around 269.9% by 2025.
Negative consequences for Trump
image source, Getty Images
Experts warn that the blockade could also have negative consequences for both the Venezuelan opposition and Donald Trump’s own government.
“If the measure fails to topple the government of Nicolás Maduro and ordinary Venezuelans begin to suffer from its effects, it is possible that many will end up blaming the opposition and Trump for the crisis,” Sabatini says.
And greater poverty in Venezuela is also likely to trigger a new wave of migration to Latin American countries and the United States.
According to UN figures, nearly 7.7 million Venezuelans have left the country since the economic and political crisis began, making the situation one of the largest migration crises in the world.
American economist Mark Weisbrot, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR), believes that the blockade announced by Trump could harm him politically if it is maintained for a long period of time.
“Around 90% of the foreign currency that Venezuela earns comes from oil exports, so a blockade like the one announced could lead to more poverty and more migration,” Weisbrot tells BBC Mundo.
“It’s a significant risk for Trump: If Venezuelan migration to the United States increases significantly, his voters are likely to make him pay for it in next year’s midterm elections.”
Subscribe here Subscribe to our new newsletter to receive a selection of our best content of the week every Friday.
And remember that you can receive notifications in our app. Download and activate the latest version.
About The Author
