Consulting firm IDC expects global smartphone shipments to decline in 2026, a direct result of the significant increase in chip prices. memory. This increase will impact supply and production costs, raising average sales prices to historical highs and affecting low-end and mid-range devices in particular.
Although 2025 will be strong for the industry, marked by an estimated 1.5% growth in sales and Apple’s consolidation in strategic markets like China, the following year is shaping up to be a period of contraction and adjustments in manufacturers’ strategies, according to IDC’s latest report.
According to IDC analysis, IT industry Smartphones It faces a negative scenario for 2026. After 2025, which is expected to be favorable, with a 1.5% rebound in global shipments and an expected sale of 1,250 million units, the outlook will change radically due to the pressure on memory costs.
The adjustment in chip supply and prices will result in an approximate 0.9% decline in mobile device shipments, halting the recovery seen in the previous year.
The document indicates that the total market value could reach $578.9 billion next year, driven by an average selling price of $465.. This average reflects the combined effect of the increase in the cost of components and the strategy of manufacturers that will seek to offset costs by raising final consumer values.
“Next year will be a challenging period for the industry, however, IDC still believes the market could see record average selling prices,” said Anthony Scarsella, the company’s director of research.
The described situation is exacerbated for price-sensitive segments, especially in low-end and mid-range Android devices. IDC warns that the ongoing memory shortage will limit supply and force adjustments in the portfolio of models, with priority given to those that generate higher corporate margins, while other brands may have no alternative but to pass on the increased costs directly to end consumers.
The IDC report highlights that Apple will play a decisive role in the positive behavior of shipments during 2025. The American company thanks to the great demand for its series iPhone 17It expects its shipments to increase by 6.1%, representing 247 million units globally.
This trend puts Apple in a position to record a record year, with iPhone sales revenue estimated at more than $261 billion, an increase of 7.2% from the previous year.
Apple’s outstanding performance in China is another important element of market analysis. The Asian region, which is considered the company’s largest market, shows strong demand for the iPhone 17, raising the brand’s share to more than 20% during the months of October and November.
This unexpected performance led IDC to revise its forecast, reversing its forecast for a 1% decline, and now forecasting 3% growth in Apple shipments in the region for the period.
Expectations of a recession in the smartphone market in 2026 are directly related to two main factors: the ongoing global memory shortage and the strategy of launching new models, most notably Apple. IDC explains that limited supply and rising prices of memory components will first impact cheaper devices, which rely on affordable prices to remain competitive.
Moreover, the decision apple Delaying the release of the next major iPhone model until 2027 will impact annual shipment results, with an expected decline of more than 4% in iOS devices by 2026, according to the IDC report.