If an agreement with Mercosur is not found, it will only be ratified “at the end of the mandate”

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on Wednesday issued an ultimatum to the European Union regarding the free trade agreement with Mercosur. At a ministerial meeting in Brasilia, Lula said that if the treaty was not signed “now”, there would be no chance of concluding it during his term, which ends in 2026.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen hopes to formalize the agreement next Saturday, during the Mercosur meeting in Foz do Iguaçu. But Lula said he had been informed that ratification would not move forward, due to resistance from France and Italy, for reasons of internal politics. According to the Brazilian leader, the treaty is “more favorable” to Europeans than to South American countries.

French President Emmanuel Macron reiterated that France was “very firmly” opposed to any attempt at forced approval, mainly due to pressure from the agricultural sector. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni also said it would be “premature” to sign the deal in the coming days.

Despite the criticism, Lula said he still hoped for a positive outcome over the weekend, but warned Brazil would take a tougher stance if the Europeans refused. “We have already given in on everything that was diplomatically possible,” he declared, reaffirming that he did not intend to prolong the negotiations indefinitely.

This impasse reflects the difficulty of advancing a treaty negotiated more than two decades ago, marked by disagreements on environmental, agricultural and industrial issues, and which has become a symbol of tension between European and Latin American interests.

Lula did everything he could to sign the agreement

Since the start of his current mandate, in 2023, Lula has taken up the political priority of concluding the Mercosur-European Union agreement, blocked since 2019, and has begun to publicly accuse the EU of “indecision”, claiming that Brazil and Mercosur had already made all possible diplomatic concessions.

Throughout 2025, Lula alternated pressure and political construction with European leaders, defending the agreement as a response to unilateralism and strengthening multilateralism. In June, he described the deal as “the most exceptional” of the turn of the century, emphasizing population and economic scale, and saying trade policy is “a two-way street,” in a nod to the need for a balance between concessions on both sides.

On the diplomatic level, Lula maintained a direct dialogue with Brussels. In June, during a meeting with António Costa, then President of the European Council, the Head of State reiterated his belief that it would be possible to sign the agreement by the end of the year, taking advantage of the Brazilian presidency of Mercosur starting in July. The conversation also articulated the COP30 climate agenda, seeking to align the trade treaty with environmental and sustainability commitments.

Tension with European capital grew as farmers and industrial sectors pressured governments like France and Italy not to immediately conclude the treaty. In Wednesday’s ultimatum, Lula said that if the EU postponed again and did not sign on Saturday, there would be no deal as long as he was president, paving the way for a tougher stance from Brazil and the South American bloc.

The cycle of increasing pressure, public messages and the search for concrete deadlines culminated in the “now or never” line adopted by Lula. Even acknowledging Europe’s internal impasses, he argued that the current text would have been more favorable to the EU than to Mercosur, and that further South American concessions were politically unfeasible, placing Brazil in the position of closing the negotiating window if there was no immediate progress.

With AFP