Over the last 10 years, the amount of deposits and physical dollars – among other currencies – located domestically or abroad and owned by Argentines or Argentine companies, increased by more than $100 billion.
They rose from $153,309 million in 2015 to $260,443 million in the third quarter of this year, according to INDEC data. This increase is also compared to the previous quarter a growth of $4,886 million.
A large portion of that number is now in the sights of the government, which, with its fiscal innocence proposal, seeks to get those dollars out of the mattress, out of bank lockers, and out of foreign countries, precisely so that those dollars get into the system.
If investments in foreign bonds and securities, real estate abroad, debt securities, whether declared or not, are added to the dollar bills, the total foreign assets in Argentine hands are added amounted to $483,278 million. In 2015 they totaled $271,766 million.
Added to the sharp increase in deposits and dollar bills were various financial investments, such as holdings in mutual funds, which rose from $26,851 million in these 10 years to $69,968 million in the third quarter. And debt increased from $14,322 million to $42,448 million.
The INDEC series shows that in 2006, after the convertibility crisis, “mattress dollars” totaled $74,282 million and exceeded $100,000 million in 2009.
At the beginning of 2016 they already amounted to 154,682 million US dollars – declared or not – and At the beginning of Alberto Fernández’s government they amounted to $226,569 million and reached $261,368 million at the end of 2023.
In the following 21 months, after Javier Milei’s presidency had already begun, The dollar, bills and deposits item totaled $260,443 million and portfolio investments increased, for example in mutual funds ($69,968 million compared to $55,053 million at the end of 2023): overall, foreign assets increased from $439,894 million to $483,278 million.
These figures illustrate the large outflow of capital or flight (because most of it is not present in the system), financed in part by larger debts (e.g. to the IMF and other international organizations to which almost 100,000 million US dollars are owed), a process that has occurred year after year due to a sharp devaluation of the peso, an exchange rate gap, low growth and recession, high inflation, a standstill in economic activity exacerbated by the pandemic and an increase in informality reinforced.
Under Milei’s leadership, the peso appreciated after the initial devaluation, dollar-denominated goods and services became more expensive, and investment in foreign currency mutual funds and debt securities increased.
In this way, although the central bank does not have dollars, Currencies grow in banknotes under the mattressin real estate or financial assets abroad and in stocks or debt securities of foreign governments or companies.
All these funds are private and are invested in banknotes or in foreign funds and currencies, while the debt belongs to the nation state. Much of it is “undeclared” and has accumulated outside the local financial system over the years.
These INDEC figures arise from the movements of purchases and sales of foreign currencies in the banking and financial system, from the inflows and outflows of funds and capital transacted through the Central Bank and from data provided by banks and companies abroad on the real estate, investments or assets that Argentinians have in their countries, as well as from estimates of movements of funds as would be the case in foreign tourism.
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