In a campaign aiming for production close to the target 28 million tonsHe Wheat market moves with great intensity: Sales are very activewith more operations than in a normal year, and they have already been marketed between 10 and 11.2 million tons, about 40% of the harvest, according to the analysts surveyed. Added to this is the upswing in exports 4.3 million tons already registered for shipment in the Affidavits of Foreign Sales (DJVE) for December, after a November in which deliveries were up 1.6 million tons. In other words, only in the last part of the year are the export records recorded amounted to around the equivalent of 900 million US dollars. A year ago, at this point, with a much lower production of 18.8 million tonsthey had been sold 7.1 million, 38% of production. Nowadays the level of business on a larger campaign is higher.
“The producers have already sold 11.2 million tons: almost 10 million were destined for export and about 8 million already have a price. There is still significant volume without setting a price, almost 3 million tons“explained the specialist Gustavo Lopez, out Agritrend. It should be clarified that when we talk about goods without a fixed price, in practice this means that the deal is closed, but the final value is still open: the producer has already delivered or promised the wheat, but has to set the price later.
“If you compare that 28 million tons that there will be production compared to what was purchased, it is 40%and about 40% Around 70% already have a price“, he explained.
In this context Javier Preciado Patino, Consultant, stated that November ended with exports around 1.6 million tonsa volume he described as “very good for November.” As described in detail, the The DJVE reached 4.3 million tonnes when shipping began in Decemberwhich shows the volume of operations already committed to export for this leg of the campaign. This does not mean that everything was shipped in December, but rather that these are commitments that are fulfilled over the months.
In this context, he pointed out that Argentina should export 10 million tons between December, January and FebruaryAnd Almost 3 million tons could actually be shipped in December.
This dynamic is reflected in the official records and in the commercial movement that the market follows. At this point, JEremías Battistoni, grain analyst at AZ Group, He explained that as of December 17, exports had purchased 9.1 million tons – 6.7 million already priced – and the total DJVE reached 4.97 million tons, following a sharp acceleration in entries in recent weeks, after a slower period. “He still has room to score more” he explained.
He also pointed out that this confirms that a large amount of wheat is being sold and that Even at relatively low values, the producer determines the price to a significant extent, while the milling industry is significantly less involved than exports.
He also highlighted the pace of shipments: he pointed out that today about 1.8 million tons are scheduled to be loaded in the next fifteen days, while until recently the volume was about 500,000 tons. “In the south today they pay almost $190 per ton,” commented on the prices.
Although this campaign appears to be one of the largest in history in terms of production, a parallel problem arises in relation to the quality of the wheat, which has implications at the commercial level. According to Battistoni, in western Buenos Aires, many types of wheat are priced at 95% of the price of slate, with a 5% penalty for poor quality.
He added that we still have to wait for the result of the harvest in the south of Buenos Aires, where better quality is expected. He stated that the most commonly negotiated values at harvest were between $180 and $185 per ton and that the perceived value when this adjustment was applied was around $171 per ton.
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