The forecasts of solid growth for Spain in 2025 are confirmed day after day. This year, the National Institute of Statistics confirmed that activity increased by 0.6% in the third quarter, which is why this is a new series of consecutive quarters in which GDP grows at this higher rate. Without knowing last year’s statistics, the Government affirms, with the information already available, that the growth rate for the whole of 2025 is 2.9%, as forecast in the macroeconomic framework presented in November, but does not rule out a more pronounced improvement. Entities such as the Consejo de Economistas or Airef give this figure at 3%.
Although these figures imply a slight moderation compared to the 0.8% increase in the second quarter, the Executive, in a statement, estimates that Spain will once again lead the growth of the main advanced economies, doubling its share in the European Union. It was saved thanks to a convulsive year in the commercial market due to the noise of the arrancelario, which accumulated over the months and the agreements signed as agreed between Washington and Brussels.
As the main cause of progress, the INE highlights the strength of internal demand. Family consumption increased by 1.1% between July and September, in a context of job creation, high levels of available labor and wage increases which, in some cases, exceed inflation, allowing purchasing power to be recovered. The inversion was the other positive protagonist, with a greater increase, of 2.1% compared to the previous quarter.
In year-on-year terms, GDP growth was 2.8%, a tenth less than in the previous quarter. national demand contributed 3.8 points and the external sector had a negative contribution of one point, confirming that the external sector has become the biggest weak point of the economy. Hours worked vary by 2.5% over one year and employment in full-time equivalent numbers by 3.3% – compared to 1.6% and 3.4% in the previous quarter.
According to calculations by the Ministry of the Economy, this year’s expansion of activity will make it possible to start 2026 with a positive inertia estimated at 1% of GDP, simply because of the ripple effect that the known figures combine. In the next fiscal year, all forecasts indicate that a slowdown will occur and growth will be about 2% higher than the current 3%. It is therefore important to take advantage of one of the keys that drives the Spanish GDP, the European funds, which expire in the future.
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