This Thursday, a few hours after the President of the United States addressed the nation to try to convince his compatriots that the economy is doing well and that all the problems occurring there are the fault of his predecessor, Joe Biden, a new date, the issue of inflation in November, defies expectations and gives a breath of fresh air to Donald Trump in the midst of the worst popularity crisis of his second term, caused by the high cost of living.
In the busiest month of the year for American consumption, the interannual variation in the price index moderated to 2.7%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the Department of Commerce, published first thing in the morning. Experts expected it to be worse: they predicted 3.1%. The underlying data, which excludes energy and food, fell to 2.6%.
Expectations were higher than usual. These were the first inflation data known since October 24, when, in the middle of the partial opening of the most prolonged administration in the history of the United States, which lasted 43 days and caused a blackout of economic information due to lack of employees to compile it, the corresponding photograph was revealed in the month of September, which was around 3%.
Due to this gap, the image proposed for this jueves could not be complete, since it only fits into an interannual variation and does not include, as usual, monthly. For this reason, analysts recommend not drawing too many conclusions before the next report.
The lack of information which causes disagreement between Republicans and Democrats when agreeing on a new hypothesis does not prevent the Federal Reserve (Fed) from announcing last week a reduction in interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point. Following this decision, concerns remain about the labor market, which has shown signs of weakening in recent weeks. The last unemployment figure was this year (4.6%), and it is the lowest since 2021.
In September, the inflation figure assumed an increase of a tenth compared to that of August. It’s also the highest number since last year, the month in which Trump took office for the second time. However, this was a better result than expected by analysts, who predicted a greater rise in prices due to the consequences of the trade war.
Progress then influenced and continued to influence, even less than expected, in November, which may have been better than expected, but did not solve Trump’s economic problems. He won the White House with a promise to hold down prices and 11 months after taking the job, inflation is behaving stubbornly and remains within reach of the Fed’s 2% target.
In his speech last night, I heard repeatedly that prices were falling “rapidly”. You are aware of your conflicting relationship with the truth and your willingness to openly lie when it is contradictory, but with your wallet it is difficult to deceive the cake citizen, who feels the rigors of the cost of living at the corner of the supermarket or in front of the Christmas gift list.
Polls confirm that this is the main concern of voters with less than a year until the next vote at the polls, the midterm legislatures, where Trump controls one of the chambers of the Capitol. Losing them would amount to a shipwreck for the remainder of his second presidency.
The storm facing Republicans is perfect, while Democrats, led by Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani, seem to have learned to win elections with a message based on uncertainty. This does not help Trump’s efforts and disregards his countrymen’s concerns about the economy’s progress.
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