Three days after Netflix announced the purchase of Warner Bros. Discovery for $82.7 billion (including debt), a new twist has occurred in the media market. Paramount, owned by billionaire David Ellison, considered close to US President Donald Trump, made a hostile offer of $108.4 billion (taking into account the injection of resources and debt) for the company.
A hostile offer means an unsolicited offer that does not have the support of the board of directors or board of directors of the company targeted by the proposal. Now, Warner shareholders will have until January 8 to evaluate whether or not they accept.
- To understand: How could Netflix’s takeover of Warner shake Hollywood?
- If the transaction is concluded: Warner CEO could become a billionaire with $72 billion sale to Netflix
There are substantial differences between the proposals. Netflix was ready to buy the film studio and streaming division HBO Max. For the deal to be finalized, Warner would have until the third quarter of 2026 to split into two companies. A part would be excluded from the activity and would include assets such as the cable television channels CNN and TNT. Paramount’s proposal encompasses the company as a whole.
Whatever route shareholders choose, the transaction will be subject to regulatory approval. In the case of Netflix’s proposal, concerns revolve around concentration in the streaming market. Netflix is the largest platform in terms of subscriber volume, with over 300 million worldwide. HBO Max has 128 million. A union with Paramount in this scenario represents less market concentration, since its streaming service has 79.1 million users.
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In Paramount’s proposal, however, other factors will be subject to regulatory review: The deal would combine two major Hollywood movie studios, two cable TV companies and two news networks (Warner’s CNN and Paramount’s CBS News).
It was planned, says Netflix
The prospect of a bidding war for the company affected Netflix shares, which fell 3.4% yesterday. Shares of Paramount rose 9%, while those of Warner rose more than 4%. Netflix executives publicly assured investors that they believed they would emerge victorious from the dispute. Netflix co-CEOs Ted Sarandos and Greg Peters said they were “extremely confident” the deal would be approved.
And they added that Paramount’s counterattack was “entirely expected,” but that Netflix would prevail according to regulators. They also reiterated their commitment to maintaining theatrical releases of Warner films.
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“We reached a deal and we’re incredibly happy with it. It’s great for shareholders. Great for consumers. We think it’s a great way to create and protect jobs in the entertainment industry,” Sarandos said.
The platform’s offering has sparked criticism and skepticism among Hollywood screenwriters, directors, producers and actors. The Warner studio represents 25% of the cinema box office. Although Netflix has previously released films theatrically, this is not seen as a central part of its strategy, instead focused on increasing the number of hours viewers spend on the streaming service.
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In his statements, Ellison sought to take advantage of the rejection of the deal by members of the Hollywood industry.
“We believe our offering will create a stronger Hollywood,” Paramount CEO Ellison said in a statement. “This is in the best interest of the creative community, consumers and the film industry.”
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Shortly before Netflix announced it had reached a deal, Paramount sent a letter to Warner Bros. CEO David Zaslav. Discovery, according to the New York Times, alleging that the company conducted a “short-sighted” sales process that “favors a single buyer.”
Warner Bros. Discovery responded by saying it had “fully and rigorously” fulfilled its obligations to shareholders. The company conducted a weeklong bidding process that also attracted interest from Comcast, the cable company that owns NBCUniversal.
In a conference call yesterday, Ellison said Paramount decided to take its offer directly to shareholders after Warner failed to respond to his previous statements. The billionaire criticizes the chances of Netflix’s offer being approved:
“To say that streaming is not a market is like looking at the beverage segment and saying that Coca-Cola and Pepsi can merge because Budweiser is a substitute,” he said.
If Netflix’s bid fails due to lack of regulatory approval, Netflix will have to pay a $5.8 billion fine to Warner. If Warner accepts an offer from Paramount or any other competitor, it will have to pay Netflix $2.8 billion.
In addition to analyzing market concentration, the company must also consider the Trump factor. The American president, who has specialized for years in confronting rivals on the show The Apprentice, is trying to hide which side he favors in the operation.
“None of them are really great friends of mine,” he told reporters at the White House yesterday. “I want to do what’s right. It’s very important to do what’s right.”
At an event Sunday, Trump praised Netflix’s Sarandos but warned that a victory for the platform “could be a problem.” The president expressed concern that the deal could create a disproportionate market share for Netflix, echoing arguments already made public by Paramount.
Yesterday, however, he took the opportunity to criticize Paramount over CBS’s “60 Minutes,” which aired an interview with a Republican congresswoman.
“They are no better than the previous owners,” Trump wrote on his social network about the deal that made Paramount’s takeover of CBS possible. “Since they bought it, 60 Minutes has become even worse!” Trump wrote, resorting to the now traditional method of posting messages with words in capital letters.
A New York Times report published after Netflix’s offer indicated that some CNN employees feared editorial changes if the network was acquired by Paramount, owner of CBS and CBS News. Consolidating the information networks was seen as a logical outcome if Ellison’s bid was successful.
Ellison and his father, Oracle founder Larry Ellison, have a friendly relationship with Trump, who has praised them several times this year. The Ellisons have also demonstrated an openness to using their media assets to advance some of Trump’s interests; Recently, Paramount expressed interest in a distribution deal for a new film in the “Rush Hour” franchise, one of the president’s favorites.
While Netflix’s offer involves a $59 billion loan, Paramount’s offer is guaranteed by the Ellison family and RedBird Capital, as well as financial backing through Bank of America, Citi and Apollo Global Management.
In addition, it has the prospect of benefiting from financial support from the sovereign wealth funds of Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi and Qatar, as well as from Affinity Partners, a private equity (purchase of stakes) company owned by the investor Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law. All the groups have agreed to waive voting rights, according to Paramount, which could make it easier to reach a deal in Washington.