The Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahumet this Monday in Jerusalem with his counterparts from Greece and Cyprus to deepen relations between the three countries, promote a commercial alliance in the Mediterranean… and address the question of Turkish expansionism.
Ultimately, beyond the military and energy agreements, what unites the three countries is precisely their resentment towards Recep Tayyip Erdoğanwho has met in recent months Donald Trump and with Vladimir Putinas well as being a key piece of the Ukrainian puzzle due to its access to the Black Sea.
When too many things are happening at once, it’s difficult to consistently follow the same narrative. It is easy to say that relations between Israel and the United States are excellent because American foreign policy has always been focused on defending the Jewish state. Today, Netanyahu has reason to distrust the White House.
His relationship with Trump has deteriorated significantly since the billionaire’s first term, when Israel attempted to annex much of the West Bank without White House authorization and ignoring the so-called Trump plan, aimed at a two-state solution to the Palestinian question.
To this we must add, on the one hand, the excellent relations of the current White House with the Arab monarchies and, on the other hand, the total respect that, as they say, Trump feels towards Erdogan.
Although in recent days Israel has insisted on the need to bring the fight against Iran to the forefront again, the truth is that there is enormous pressure from the United States and other Western and Arab countries for Israel to start working on the second part of the agreement with Hamas and give way to an international force that will lead to an interim government in the Gaza Strip.
Links between Hamas and Turkey
Netanyahu’s problem with this second phase is that he is not interested at all. He never did. Among Trump’s famous twenty points, Israel reluctantly accepted those regarding the ceasefire in exchange for the release of hostages still held by Hamas.
The rest is what matters most to the United States, which wants to normalize its relations in the Middle East as quickly as possible, keep Saudi Arabia as an ally and make Gaza a prosperous place to invest… but it is what interests both the terrorist group and Israel the least.
Israel, or more specifically its Prime Minister, although this is a fairly common position in Hebrew society, is currently completely opposed to the two-state solution… even if he has not been on other occasions.
They understand that Gaza obviously cannot be independent with Hamas at the helm… but they also fear that prosperity in the Palestinian area will lead to the formation of their own state. On the Hamas side, the explanation is logical: they do not want to give up power under any circumstances.
The president of Türkiye, the Islamist Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Reuters
What does Turkey have to do with it? Well, along with Qatar and Iran, the Erdoğan government has been one of the main sponsors of Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
Turkey currently has no commercial or diplomatic relations with Israel and even closed its air and maritime space after the response to the attacks of October 7, 2023.
Just this week, the Israeli government refused to allow Ankara to participate in discussions on the international force expected to impose the new order in Gaza.
The electric cable and the “joint reaction force”
The ideal for Netanyahu would be to find a way to weaken Turkey and slow its Islamist drift, but this will not be possible if Erdoğan enjoys the support of Russia and the United States. He is the ideal ally because he hardly creates any problems – yet – and does not take a clear position in any conflict.
Istanbul was the seat Russia chose for its first negotiations with Ukraine shortly after the start of the 2022 invasion… and, in turn, Turkey is a NATO country with all that implies in terms of weapons and diplomatic relations.
In the absence of this magical solution, Israel’s rapprochement with Greece and Cyprus is a matter of pure necessity.
Both states are members of the European Union and share the fear of the Turkish threat: after all, Greece only gained independence from Istanbul in 1825, after 400 years under the rule of the Ottoman Empire, and part of the island of Cyprus lies in Turkey’s direct orbit, although the government is currently chaired by the Greek Cypriot. Nikos Christodoulidis.
Of course, beyond the union against Turkey, there are questions of economic collaboration which are of vital importance for the three countries; in particular, the electrical interconnection cable which would connect Israel to Europe through these countries and which would represent a very important alternative for the Jewish State to the always complicated affairs with its Arab neighbors.
Military cooperation is also fluid: the three countries have agreed on a “common reaction force” in the event of an attack by one of them, which has around 2,500 men; Furthermore, Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) pilots train in Greek airspace and their soldiers train on Cypriot territory.
In the event that, at some point, the United States – whether with this administration or another – ceases to be its privileged ally, Israel needs parallel paths so as not to remain isolated.
It’s not exactly a message to Trump, but it is confirmation that U.S. aid can at least be supplemented by other allies. Given Israel’s current diplomatic situation, even within the European Union itself, any progress in this regard is decisive for the government in Tel Aviv.
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