On Christmas Day, Jair published a letter comparing his decision to attempt to give Flávio a presidential role with God’s decision to deliver his son to martyrdom.
Perhaps Jair embarked on this fantasy of grandeur after Jim Caviezel, who played Jesus in “The Passion of the Christ,” was cast as him in the film “Dark Horse,” a sort of fascist “Cinderella of Bahia” directed by former culture minister Mário Frias.
The Christmas letter may seem like old news: Jair had already announced that he would support Flávio in 2026. But the news is exactly this: nothing has changed, the center expected it to change, and time is passing.
Now there are parliamentary recess, then there is Carnival. When Brazilian politics comes roaring back, there will be little time to swap Flávio Bolsonaro for Tarcísio de Freitas. It will be well before the deadline for Tarcísio to decide whether he will leave the São Paulo government to run for president.
To make matters worse, the letter was released at the same time as Michelle Bolsonaro’s Christmas message, in which the former first lady, a notorious admirer of Saudi jewelry and Queiroz checks, complained of the “betrayal of those close to her.” He seemed to be referring to his stepson Flávio, a noted admirer of mansions purchased with cash and, finally, checks from Queiroz.
In other words: Flávio and Michelle will face each other again in the semi-final and, only then, will they play the final against Tarcísio. On the date scheduled for the final, Tarcísio will have to choose between an easy-to-win competition and one that is much riskier.
It is for this reason that many knowledgeable people saw in Jair’s letter the obituary of Tarcísio de Freitas’ candidacy for president in 2026.
It’s too early to understand it. Regardless, Tarcísio has good reasons for not wanting to become president in 2027.
He would be elected with the support of the market, which would expect a very harsh budgetary adjustment from him. He would also be elected with the support of the centrao, which each year gains control of more of the budget in the form of parliamentary amendments.
His only potential ally in this fight against Congress – the same as Lula today – would be the STF. Any constitutional court worth its salt knows that Congress’ control of the budget is changing Brazil’s division of powers in a very different direction than voters predicted.
Can Tarcísio count on the STF? His Bolsonian voters will have voted for him, confident in the promise of a war against the Supreme Court. When he called Alexandre de Moraes a “tyrant” on Avenida Paulista, Tarcísio registered the promise with a notary.
Over the past three years, Lula has had enormous difficulties governing, facing opposition from the alliance between the putschist right and the corrupt right. Tarcísio, who is an intelligent man, must have already wondered if governing with this alliance in his favor is not even more difficult.
Hopes that Brazil’s conservatives would end the year with a consolidated presidential candidate proved thwarted.
The Brazilian right is immensely more powerful than the left, even when it loses the presidential election. What is remarkable is that this immense conservative machine, created during our transition to democracy, is so difficult to run.
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