This is the last column of a year in which I have written extensively about the institutional, fiscal and ethical deterioration in Brazil. There would be no shortage of subjects to continue in the same vein: ministers of the STF (Federal Supreme Court) seriously suspected, a closed budget based on creativity and exceptions to the fiscal framework, organized crime with operators occupying high positions in public institutions.
But I will be optimistic, looking for signs that society can respond.
Let’s start with the Central Bank, where the appointment of Gabriel Galípolo as president of the municipality risked derailing monetary policy. After all, his professional career was marked by a disbelief in the inflation targeting regime, with a strong dose of heterodoxy. However, Galípolo pursued a firm monetary policy, in partnership with the bank’s management, resisting political harassment from the PT and the executive.
We have the feeling that the autonomy of the Central Bank is being consolidated. Maybe it’s too early to celebrate. Lula may have played, until now, with the tactic of making public criticisms, but internally supporting the BC action, thus obtaining a double gain: he appeases the left and controls inflation. Risks loom: in an election year, the president will appoint two administrators to replace those who are among the strongest advocates of coherent monetary policy.
The second positive news is that the STF has confirmed part of the social security reform, which establishes the calculation of the value of the permanent disability benefit. An action was brought before the Court to have this benefit equivalent to 100% of the worker’s average salary.
As Pedro Nery explains, in an excellent column in the Estado de S. Paulo, if this thesis prevailed, disability retirement would be more remunerative than traditional retirement and would allow early retirement, which would encourage judicialization, thus creating an opportunity for a medical certificate industry. The score was close: 6 to 5. There will be even more emotions in similar events in the future.
The third good news is that the government has failed to overturn the new legal framework for basic sanitation. Data from ABCON/SINDCON indicates that private participation in sanitation investments increased from 15% to 27% between 2020 and 2023. After 2020, 60 concession auctions took place, in a more competitive environment, with clear objectives of universalization, clarity and regulatory stability.
Indeed, for several years, in all areas of infrastructure, at the three levels of government, PPPs and concessions have multiplied, in a more stable regulatory environment and more mature modeling, with the provision of resources by the capital market, which has allowed us to reduce our delay in infrastructure. For example, a CNT study shows that the rate of motorways in good or excellent condition increased from 33% in 2024 to 38% in 2025.
The approval of the PL of the persistent debtor, the rejection of the protective PEC and some successful joint operations of public institutions against organized crime are signs that we have not yet lost this war.
I would like to end this column by celebrating the Mercosur-European Union agreement. We would have trade openness and fewer opportunities for subsidies to influential sectors, which would boost productivity. Unfortunately, the EU bit the bullet. But it’s already a relief to see Brazil on the side that wants to sign.
There is little good news. Some fragile and prone to overturning. But they exist and encourage those who wish to build a just, honest and prosperous society. Good year.
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