Following strong reports that a bond would be issued under New York legislation to raise remaining funds for the Jan. 9 maturity of a $4.3 billion bond, The Minister of Economy Luis Caputo announced his preferences.
In response to an X Network user, Caputo explained that since then the government has been inclined not to return to the international market The goal is to “reduce dependence” on Wall Street. and develop the local capital market.
“We have the $1,000 million of it (last week’s placement reached 910 million), almost $7,000 million that the banks have offered us as a repo, we have the two swaps, so we can ultimately get the dollars from that side.”. “Today, the expiration of January 9th for $4.3 billion is not a problem.”, explained the head of the Palacio de Hacienda in an interview on La Casa streaming. He also assured that “a refinancing could take place on the same day.”
This last statement would not be a coincidence, as financier Ignacio Adbuchid Caputo proposed new alternatives two weeks ago at an event to launch the IB Foundation among economists and market analysts. The truth is that some operators in the local market and on Wall Street already had this in mind.
At this event, Caputo made the announcement They intended the placement to achieve an interest rate of less than 9% upon return to the debt market.
Finally, the goal was not achieved, Since the local market offered only $910 million at an interest rate of 9.26% for the placement of a bond with Argentine law for three years, which raised some questions compared to the recent placements of the Autonomous City of Buenos Aires (CABA), which placed in dollars at 7.5% per year, and Santa Fe, which issued a new bond in euros at 8.5% per year.
With the placement of Bonar 2029 N on December 10th, The economic team received some of the dollars with which it will pay off the debt on January 9th. This, together with the approval of the 2026 budget, will help reduce the country’s risk even further.
Although it was a somewhat complicated bet, since both the AL20 and the AL30, currently listed on the market, yield over 10% annually, the omens are at least good, since it was possible to place a bond again on the capital market, something that has not been possible since the debt refinement carried out by Martín Guzmán in 2021
From the Treasury perspective, this was highlighted Offers totaled $1.4 billion and 2,500 investors showed upSo there was some interest from retailers.
President Javier Milei also referred to the issue last Sunday. “We will pay off the debt, through the repo offer alone we have $7,000 million, so we are calm.”he hinted.
Currently, the economic team’s position is to decide at the last minute whether or not to take out a loan from international banks and to what extent, although the countdown is getting faster and faster.
An announcement from Caputo regarding the financing, which will be completed with a group of international banks, is expected in the coming days. According to the minister The proposals in this way amount to a total of 7,000 million dollars and the aim is not to affect the use of the reserves to meet this next obligation.
At the same time, the international market continues to play in Argentina’s favor, which could favor an impending debt placement in the coming months, as the US Federal Reserve cut the short-term interest rate for the third time this year, keeping it below 4% per year. This in turn leads to greater investor search for investment opportunities, which encourages future investments in countries that are considered riskier.
Lower country risk: Javier Milei’s plan for Argentina
The economic team’s main strategy for 2026 is Reduce country risks and restore access to international financing. Although it may seem otherwise, Caputo’s recent comments about the need to reduce dependence on Wall Street also point in this direction.
The minister assured on Wednesday that he wanted to reduce dependence on Wall Street, assuming that this would happen low issuance of foreign-law bonds next year. The January repayment and the reduction in interest rates in the United States would support this approach.
Sovereign risk has already approached the 550 basis points range twice this year, hitting on January 9 the record of 554 points not seen since mid-2018 in the government of Mauricio Macri, and in December it reached this level again but failed to break it.
So far it appears to be a difficult ground to drill into and the economic team is sticking with it The best strategy is to avoid giving the impression that you are desperate to get into debt.
Apparently Milei and Caputo’s tactics contradict those he used during his tenure as finance minister in Mauricio Macri’s government. At that time, according to many local market and Wall Street operators, The issuance of dollar-denominated bonds abroad was abused.
From next year and until the end of 2027, the approach would be different. Renewed access to international capital markets will be just one of the alternatives Refinance debt maturities in dollars in 2026 and 2027.
It is no coincidence that Caputo has made it clear that he does not need to go to the international capital market to pay off the debt that comes due on January 9th. The thing is: With just over ten days left until around $4.3 billion matures, The Treasury Department has already collected around $2.5 billion.
Since December 4 last year, the Ministry of Economic Affairs has accelerated the pace of foreign exchange purchases in just 8 working days increased its dollar deposits with the BCRA from about $100 million to about $2,000 million, reveals the latest report from the consulting firm Invecq.
This spectacular increase in the economy’s holdings of foreign currency at the central bank is due to purchases of dollars estimated at around 630 million. plus approximately $360 million in net disbursements from international financial organizations such as the Inter-American Development Bank, and an additional $910 million for the December 10 placement of BONAR 2029 N.
The “surprise” that Caputo will have to add $2026 after the budget
The question facing local and Wall Street operators is: Where will the missing $1.8 billion come from? and in this context it should be noted that Milei and Caputo had prepared a surprise.
First, another $700 million could be added (bringing the balance to just $1.1 billion). This is due to the fact that last week the contracts for the concession and transfer of shares for the private operation of the dams of Comahue, Alicurá, El Chocón, Piedra del Águila and Cerros Colorados, were signed, thus beginning the privatization process that entered its final phase and allowed the start of the operational transition towards the victorious companies, which must make the payments before the end of the year.
The remaining amount could be covered by the increase in new debt approved in the 2026 budget, which became law.
In the already approved project The executive branch requested authorization to borrow $288 billion in 2026, which is equivalent to about $200 billion. Article 43, in turn, stipulates that 18% of the total amount allocated for the issuance of public securities may be invested in currencies and under foreign jurisdiction, which, according to estimates by the consulting firm PxQ, corresponds to about $23 billion.
This clause does not mean that Argentina will issue debt of this amount, but rather that it has the authority to do so up to this limit. If the state placed this volume abroad, it could do more than just refinance the debt.
According to the consulting firm, 1816 In 2026, a total of $14 billion will be due between the monetary fund, bondholders and the Paris Club. without counting the rest of the multilaterals.
Privatizations and new basic law: Luis Caputo envisages a new reserve source
It should be noted that Caputo described privatizations as a source of income. “There is also the option that is not being discussed, but we are working on it There will be a sale of assets worth many billions of dollars. “We will sell many of the assets that are in the State Assets Agency (ABE) and that will generate billions of dollars in revenue.” the minister said last week.
In this context, it is worth noting that the government has a new Basic Law II project in the pipeline to incorporate everything downloaded by legislators from the Basic Law passed in August 2024.
In this legislation, one of the highlighted sections is dedicated to the privatization of public companies, including the following companies: Energía Argentina (ENARSA), Intercargo, Aguas y Saneamiento (AySA), Belgrano Cargas, Sociedad Operadora Ferroviaria (SOFSE), Corredores Viales, Nucleoeléctrica Argentina Sociedad Anónima (NASA) and Complejo Carbonifero, Ferroviario, Portuario y Energetico is responsible for Yacimientos Carboniferos Río Cloudy (YCRT).
The most important thing is the income from the new Hidrovia concession. For all he could know iProfessional It will be managed by current concessionaire Jean de Nul, who will apparently share the business with Neuss Group, which is currently responsible for its beacon system. This new business association (UTE) would be the one closest to winning the new tender since, on the one hand, it would cover the dredging of the Paraná River, which in turn would be complemented by the lighting managed by the Neuss Group, a combination that no local or international company can offer.
On the other hand, it should be noted that among the companies that the government agreed to exclude from the megaproject of the Base Law in August 2024 are Aerolíneas Argentinas, Correo Argentino and RTA (Argentine Radio and Television) and Banco Nación Argentina (BNA).
The latter is one of the so-called “grandmother’s jewels,” which is also to be sold at the request of the IMF. It is the latter in which the government, through Secretary General Karina Milei, appointed Darío Waserman as the new president who would be responsible for organizing the privatization of the public bank should the government achieve the adoption of a new law.
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