With political winds blowing towards conservative positions in Latin America and presidential elections scheduled for next year, Brazil could be the next country in the region in the hands of the right. To prevent this, the main candidate is the current President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Lula, who begins his third term in 2023 and seeks to consolidate a Rooseveltian course, expand his political presence and win a fourth democratic term.
However, the picture is anything but linear. Although economic results were positive in his third term, the president’s popularity initially did not reflect this prosperity. GDP grew, inflation was kept under control and new jobs were created, but by mid-2025 the absolute majority of Brazilians rejected his government.
This paradox between macroeconomic performance and low popularity fueled the idea that Lula could face a “Biden scenario,” following the experiences of the former President of the United States. During Biden’s term, macroeconomic numbers were strong: the economy grew 3.2% in 2023 and 2.7% in 2024, with notable improvements in labor productivity. Inflation, which soared in 2022 due to the energy crisis caused by the war in Ukraine, was brought under control without strict recessionary measures. Unemployment remained at a historically low level of under 4% until 2024 and rose only slightly to 4.1% this year.
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However, the Democrats were unable to translate this encouraging picture into electoral success. In the 2024 elections, Kamala Harris, then Vice President and presidential candidate, was unable to take advantage of the good indicators and was defeated by Donald Trump. The lesson was clear: macroeconomic successes alone do not guarantee political support unless they are perceived as tangible improvements in the daily lives of the majority.
By mid-2025, Brazil appeared to be headed for a similar outcome. GDP grew by 3.4% in 2024 and in the first quarter of 2025 the country was the fifth fastest growing economy in the world. Inflation remained slightly above the central bank’s target but remained under control. Even more remarkable were the employment data: the unemployment rate fell to 6.6% in 2024, the lowest level since 2012, with an increase in average income and an expansion of formal employment, a significant achievement in a country with high informal employment.
However, in April and May 2025, various polling institutes recorded that the absolute majority of Brazilians disapproved of Lula’s management. It is this discrepancy between macroeconomic performance and social perception that fueled the “Biden scenario” hypothesis: a president with good numbers but no ability to convert them into sustained popularity.
But the international situation changed the political situation. The recent diplomatic attacks between Brazil and the United States appear to have strengthened the figure of the president, who has managed to present himself as a defender of national sovereignty despite external pressure from President Donald Trump. This dynamic, in which an external enemy mobilizes internal support, is referred to by some analysts as the “Moby Dick effect.”
Therefore, Lula’s electoral future in 2026 could be determined by the interplay of two opposing forces: the difficulty of converting economic gains into sustained political support – the “Biden scenario” – and the possibility of using the confrontation with Washington to win support for his leadership – the “Moby Dick effect” -.
Change of course
The panorama began to change in July 2025 when certain external factors began to emerge forcefully. This month, Donald Trump’s administration threatened Brazil with imposing 50% tariffs on its exports, arguing that the Brazilian judiciary was carrying out political persecution against Jair Bolsonaro. With the active support of Eduardo Bolsonaro – a representative and son of the former president – in Washington, the threat came true on August 6th.
Paradoxically, the North American measure ultimately strengthened Lula. The president presented himself as a defender of Brazilian sovereignty against what he described as unacceptable interference in domestic affairs. This strategy had an immediate impact: recent polls showed that while just over half of the population still disapproves of his management, the approval rating has increased by five percentage points to 46% compared to April.
A poll by consulting firm Quaest also found that 48% of Brazilians support Lula and the Workers’ Party’s approach to the conflict with Washington, compared to 28% who support Bolsonaro and his allies. Another 15% said they did not join either camp. These data suggest that the confrontation with the United States has led to at least some unity around the president.
The phenomenon is reminiscent of the rally around the flag, in which an external threat mobilizes internal support for the country’s leader. Hence the metaphor of the “Moby Dick effect”: just as in Herman Melville’s novel the crew of the Pequod under the command of Captain Ahab banded together to fight the sperm whale, part of the Brazilian electorate appears to have thrown its weight behind Lula in the face of American pressure, seen as a blatant violation of international law and traditional diplomatic practices.
The Canadian parallel and the possibility of re-election in 2026
The impact of tensions with Trump does not only affect Brazil. In Canada, a similar phenomenon changed the political landscape in 2025. After a decade in power, Justin Trudeau faced profound attrition and popularity ratings went into free fall. The Liberals were preparing for a difficult election in 2026 and faced an increasingly strengthened Conservative Party.
Trudeau’s resignation and the arrival of Mark Carney in the Liberal leadership changed the game. When Trump threatened Canada with tariffs and even suggested that the country could become the “51st state” of the United States, Carney knew how to capitalize on nationalism and defense of sovereignty by calling an early election. The result was historic: the Liberals won their first clear victory in more than a decade and achieved the highest share of the vote by any party since 1984.
Lula seems to have understood this dynamic. It is no coincidence that he announced that the central theme of the September 7 Independence Day parade would be “national sovereignty.”
The outcome of the 2026 elections will therefore depend on which of the two forces can prevail. If the perception of a disconnect between business and everyday life prevails, it could be difficult for Lula to extend his mandate. However, if he manages to present himself as a defender of Brazilian sovereignty in the face of external pressure, his chances of winning a fourth term will increase significantly.
*Sociologist from the University of São Paulo and Master’s degree in Latin American Studies from the Universities of Salamanca, Stockholm and Paris 3-Sorbonne Nouvelle. Research assistant at the Institute of Barcelona International Studies (IBEI) and doctoral candidate in political science at the Pompeu Fabra University (UPF).
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