President Lula (PT) seeks at least the neutrality of the parties that make up the government by issuing an ultimatum to ministers on their side in the 2026 conflict. The intention, according to the allies, is to avoid the formation of formal alliances on the right.
In the crosshairs of the government, at this first moment, are the MDB and the PSD. This strategy will depend on the definition of the opposition’s candidacies, subject to changes in the event of the launch of Governor Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) next year.
This Wednesday (17), during the last ministerial meeting of the year, Lula said that ministers and parties will have to decide which project they will defend for the country in light of what it has done for Brazil compared to previous governments — what he called “the moment of truth.”
“Next year is the year where we will have the opportunity, not only because we will be in conflict, but because every minister, every party you participate in, will have to be in the electoral process and will have to define which side they are on. It will be inexorable for people to define the speech they are going to make,” he said.
Then, ministers Rui Costa (Civil House) and Fernando Haddad (Finance) presented the government’s actions in opposition to the management of Jair Bolsonaro (PL).
According to the president’s aides, Lula wants to know who will be by his side in the 2026 elections. Despite the support of ministers, the demand will extend to those in second-tier positions to maintain the party’s support.
The idea is to take advantage of the uncertainty surrounding right-wing candidates to increase the number of supporters of center parties by consolidating platforms in the states.
It will be up to Minister Gleisi Hoffmann (Secretariat for Institutional Relations) to produce a map of the political godfathers and godmothers of these office holders. These vacancies could be used to add more support in the states, with the dismissal of Bolsonaro supporters.
The continued candidacy of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) for the presidency will serve as justification to criticize his father’s government, which was ultimately defeated by Lula in 2022.
Amid the conflict between opposition figures, organizers of the Lula government will work to consolidate regional support to try to prevent the conclusion of national alliances in favor of the candidacy of Tarcísio, who is still considered by the PT as the president’s most likely opponent.
This strategy is progressing within the MDB, whose São Paulo wing defends support for the governor of São Paulo. But regional agreements should impose the neutrality of the acronym. Lula has as allies some of the main leaderships of the party, particularly in the North and Northeast, such as Pará, Alagoas, Maranhão and Ceará.
Furthermore, other negotiations are underway. In Mato Grosso do Sul, for example, the PT is considering withdrawing its candidacy for the Senate to support the Minister of Planning, Simone Tebet (MDB), if she decides to run in that state. The only condition would be that she does not publicly support the re-election of the governor, now a member of the PP and supporter of Bolsonaro.
Supported by the national president of the PT, Edinho Silva, the effort to neutralize the PSD will depend on the political fate of Tarcísio, who counts in the government team the president of the party, Gilberto Kassab.
Although he says he should support Tarcísio, Kassab also mentions the names of governors Ratinho Júnior (PR) and Eduardo Leite (RS) as potential candidates for president, if the São Paulo governor decides not to run. Support for Flávio in the first round is ruled out.
Furthermore, Kassab’s strategy will depend on what Tarcísio has in store for him during his possible presidential campaign. Kassab does not hide his intention to run at the Palácio dos Bandeirantes with the support of the governor, but the Bolsonaristas oppose the candidacy and the MDB intends to launch the mayor of São Paulo, Ricardo Nunes, for this position.
The situation of the PSD in Minas Gerais was also cited as an example of contradiction. Even with Alexandre Silveira (Minas and Energy) in government, the PSD joined Romeu Zema’s (Novo) vice-governor Matheus Simões in October and announced that he would be the party’s candidate for governor.
PSD members believe, with reservations, that the case of Minas Gerais is another indication that Kassab should, at most, leave the party neutral, since each state is in a different situation. In Bahia, for example, the PSD should appear on the PT platform.
The Emedebistas, in turn, believe that Lula’s message was directed towards the PSD, while Kassab began to make more explicit movements of opposition and support to Tarcísio’s presidential candidacy. Regarding the MDB, they claim that the trend is already towards neutrality and that the party’s ministers will campaign for the president regardless of the party’s position.
PT members claim that the scenario today is more favorable than in previous elections, when the MDB launched Tebet for the presidency and the PSD remained neutral in both rounds. But in the United States, politicians from both parties campaigned for Lula’s election.
“I believe that in today’s elections there will be greater support, with the strength that the government has,” says MP Zeca Dirceu (PT-PR). He emphasizes that with the approach of the elections and the main projects already approved in Congress, the Executive will have more strength to reorganize its team. “In the first years of management, the government exercised this force in a simpler way, to avoid breaking down relations,” he says.
The Republicans, the PP and União Brasil continue their trend of launching or joining a presidential candidacy in opposition to Lula, even while occupying positions in the PT government. The PP removed the Minister of Sports, André Fufuca (MA), from his leadership positions, but avoided a breakup. He is working to be a candidate for the Senate with the support of Lula in Maranhão.
União Brasil expelled the Minister of Tourism, Celso Sabino, and proposed another name for the position, but the President of the Senate, Davi Alcolumbre (União Brasil-AP), maintains the appointment of the Ministers of National Integration and Communications, in addition to leading public companies like Codevasf. The acronym left the exchange’s definition of this and other positions chosen by party politicians in the hands of the government itself.
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