Marco Rubio wins the Trump era

They’re watching the 2016 Republican primary and trying to figure out if Ted Cruz either Marco Rubio can prevent Donald Trump Win the Republican nomination.

A man from the future emerges from a glowing portal and informs you that the winner of the primary will be the Republican president who will finally bomb Iran’s nuclear program.

“Hmm,” you say, “maybe Ted Cruz.”

But there is more, says the traveler.

The same Republican president will send weapons to support Ukraine in a brutal war against Russia Vladimir Putin.

“Okay,” you say, “then we can probably take Trump off the list.”

And finally, your visitor informs you that this president will initiate a naval blockade against socialist Venezuela with the aim of achieving a realignment of Latin America that could also undermine Venezuela’s ally VenezuelaCuba.

You immediately enter a new website called Prediction Market and bet all your savings on it Marco Rubio.

The presidency in 2026 belongs to Trump, and the language of his administration is none of that idealistic neoconservatism that shaped Rubio’s political image a decade ago.

Depending on the document or day of the week, Trumpism can sound like Nixonian realism, pre-World War II isolationism, or simply arrogant commercial imperialism.

But when we look at what the administration actually does, not just what it says, the aggressive foreign policy we once expected from a President Rubio is palpably present in the policies of Trump’s second term.

Yes, there is an ongoing quest for peace with Russia, but almost a year after Trump promised an immediate deal, the war continues with American military support.

There is more clarity between the United States and Israel than traditional neoconservatism would advocate, but the military action long desired by Middle East hawks was carried out by Trump.

And although the justifications for attempting regime change in Venezuela vary – drugs! Oil! Trump’s consequence of the Monroe Doctrine! – We are clearly engaged in the kind of old-fashioned anti-communist action one might expect from a son of Miami as Secretary of State.

By wielding this apparent influence, Rubio has somehow managed to avoid becoming a media obsession or a key player in the psychodrama unleashed by the right.

He has amassed formal power (in a Kissinger-style consolidation he was expanded to include the post of national security adviser) without amassing many sworn enemies.

It helps that he has officially subordinated his political ambitions and is promising support JD Vance if presented in 2028.

But the lack of formal presidential intentions hasn’t stopped everyone from Pete Hegseth onwards Susie Wilesbecome a temporary lightning rod.

Still, Rubio remains forceful and relatively reserved, not bulletproof but at least a little Teflon.

This makes him the most interesting figure in the government at the moment.

A recurring theme in criticism of Trump-era Republican politicians is accommodation and action moral concessionsultimately they only deserve humiliation.

Rubio undoubtedly had to do it Give in to your principles.

It’s hard to imagine anything he liked Elon Musk have worked with foreign aid or enjoy the amoral style with which White House officials are supposed to speak about international affairs.

But it’s also very obvious what he gained by working within the confines of Trumpism:

the power to shape foreign policy in line with their pre-Trump beliefs.

Whether that power justifies the compromises is a question; Whether you exercise it prudently or effectively is another matter.

I was skeptical of Rubio’s foreign policy vision in 2016, and I remain skeptical of armed interventionism.

However, the current government’s strategy in Ukraine – to negotiate hard and shift the burden to Europe, while recognizing that Putin may not want a deal – is a reasonably balanced balance between aggressive and conciliatory.

And the bombing of Iran’s nuclear program has not had the impact feared or drawn us into a war of regime change.

Venezuela is the most important test right now, the place where Rubio’s historical interests are most at stake and where the administration’s case for one just war They are weaker.

The regime of Nicolas Maduro is unfortunate, and its peaceful overthrow under economic pressure and the threat of war would be a triumph for the Trump administration, even if the justifications are dubious.

But it’s so easy to imagine a scenario in which we end up with saber-rattling and the destruction of ships suspected of pointlessly transporting drugs, or, alternatively, in which we act rashly Creating a Libya How can one imagine a smooth restoration of democracy in Latin America?

But the nature of power means that possessing it will test your ambitions.

And the very fact that we are testing a regime change strategy in Latin America is compelling evidence that what never came in the 2016 campaign – the Marco Rubio moment – ​​may finally have arrived.

circa 2025 The New York Times Company